Characterization of salivary hormones in freely cycling smokers and the relationship between dynamic patterns in hormone levels and smoking behavior

摘要 这项建议寻求建立描述以下过程的数学模型的特征 女性月经周期过程中唾液孕酮和雌二醇的激素水平。 具体地说，荷尔蒙峰值速度的时间和大小将使用 建立了数学模型。将获得这些估计的大样本方差。使用这些 特征，将执行蒙特卡罗模拟来确定我们的模型在 估计荷尔蒙峰值的时间和幅度。模拟将包括几个逼真的设计 例如来自完整周期(28天)数据、随机丢失10%的数据和14个连续的截断集合 测量的天数。所开发的方法将应用于从先前的研究中收集的数据 测试关于上述模型的特性的影响的假设的主要重点， 对压力和吸烟相关线索的反应性与日常吸烟行为。

Abstract This proposal seeks to establish characteristics of the mathematical models describing the progressions of salivary progesterone and estradiol hormone levels through the course of a woman's menstrual cycle. Specifically, time and magnitude of peak hormone velocities will be estimated using derivatives of the mathematical models developed. Large sample variances of these estimates will be obtained. Using these characteristics, Monte-Carlo simulations will be performed to determine the capacity of our models in estimating time and magnitude of the peak hormone rates. Simulations will include several realistic designs such as data from complete cycle (28 days), missing 10% at random and a truncated set of 14 contiguous days of measurements. The methods developed will be applied to data collected from a previous study with a primary focus of testing hypotheses regarding the impact of the characteristics of the models mentioned above, on reactivity to stressful and smoking related cues and daily smoking behavior.