Characterization of salivary hormones in freely cycling smokers and the relationship between dynamic patterns in hormone levels and smoking behavior

摘要 该建议旨在建立描述以下过程的数学模型的特征： 唾液孕酮和雌二醇激素水平通过一个女人的月经周期的过程。 具体地，将使用以下方程的导数来估计峰值激素速度的时间和幅度： 数学模型的发展。将获得这些估计值的大样本方差。使用这些 特性，将进行蒙特-卡罗模拟，以确定我们的模型的能力， 估计峰值激素速率的时间和幅度。模拟将包括几个现实的设计 例如来自完整周期（28天）数据、随机缺失10%和截短的14个连续数据集 天的测量。开发的方法将应用于从以前的研究中收集的数据， 主要重点是测试有关上述模型特征影响的假设， 对压力和吸烟相关线索的反应以及日常吸烟行为。

Abstract This proposal seeks to establish characteristics of the mathematical models describing the progressions of salivary progesterone and estradiol hormone levels through the course of a woman's menstrual cycle. Specifically, time and magnitude of peak hormone velocities will be estimated using derivatives of the mathematical models developed. Large sample variances of these estimates will be obtained. Using these characteristics, Monte-Carlo simulations will be performed to determine the capacity of our models in estimating time and magnitude of the peak hormone rates. Simulations will include several realistic designs such as data from complete cycle (28 days), missing 10% at random and a truncated set of 14 contiguous days of measurements. The methods developed will be applied to data collected from a previous study with a primary focus of testing hypotheses regarding the impact of the characteristics of the models mentioned above, on reactivity to stressful and smoking related cues and daily smoking behavior.