ALCOHOL PROBLEM TRAJECTORIES IN YOUNG ADULTS--THE NLSY

拟议研究的总体目标是证明 最先进的统计方法在回答 酒精研究对预防至关重要的问题。实现 为了实现这一目标，拟议的研究将进行第二次 国家青年纵向调查（NLSY）， 12,686名年轻人的全国代表性样本。的数据 NLSY提供了关于发展的广泛纵向信息， 酒精滥用和依赖。与其他酒精数据相比 来源，NLSY是独特的，在其组合的大样本量， 多个观察时间点、多个队列和多个 酒精使用障碍的指标。 的纵向性质 数据提供了重要的机会，研究病因学 酒精使用障碍和识别的关键因素 个人处于危险之中，这些问题对预防研究很重要。 拟议的研究将突出新的统计方法， 使用潜在变量构造的分类数据和其他非正态数据 反复的措施。次要分析有两个目的：（1） 评估和描述稳定和变化的模式， 随着时间的推移，DSM-IV酒精滥用和依赖的患病率，以及（2） 分析青年时期酒精使用的轨迹， 将其与酒精使用障碍相关的风险因素联系起来。

The overall objective of the proposed research is to demonstrate the usefulness of state of the art statistical methods for answering alcohol research questions of key importance to prevention. To achieve this objective the proposed research will undertake a secondary analysis of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), a nationally representative sample of 12,686 young adults. Data from the NLSY provide extensive longitudinal information on the development of alcohol abuse and dependence. In relation to other alcohol data sources, the NLSY is unique in its combination of a large sample size, many time points of observation, multiple cohorts, and several indicators of alcohol use disorders. The longitudinal nature of the data provides significant opportunities for studying the etiology of alcohol use disorders and the critical factors for identifying individuals at risk, issues which are important to prevention research. The proposed research will highlight new statistical methods for categorical and other non-normal data using latent variable constructs and repeated measures. The secondary analyses will have two aims: (1) to assess and describe patterns of stability and change in the prevalence of DSM-IV alcohol abuse and dependence over time, and (2) to analyze the trajectories of alcohol use across young adulthood and relate them to risk factors associated with alcohol use disorders.