The Effect of Birth Order on Development and Attainment

描述(由申请人提供)：许多研究都讨论了出生顺序对认知能力测量的作用，但到目前为止还没有达成一致意见。现有的大多数出生顺序与儿童认知发展和成绩负相关的证据都是基于使用横断面数据进行的常规回归分析。特别是，还没有研究使用大的兄弟姐妹样本来调查出生顺序对幼儿发育的影响。我建议使用更好的数据和方法来调查出生顺序对儿童发展和学业成就的作用。我还将评估最终完成的家庭规模的作用，以及它与出生顺序对儿童发展的影响有何关系。具体地说，我将调查(1)出生顺序晚的儿童面临不利发展和学业结果的风险增加，(2)出生顺序效应是因果关系还是虚假相关的结果，(3)最终完成家庭规模对发育有独立影响，(4)少数族裔和低收入家庭的出生顺序和完整家庭规模效应不同，(5)出生顺序对行为发展的影响不同于对认知发展的影响，(6)出生顺序、完整家庭规模和兄弟姐妹间距对学业成就有长期影响。为了研究这些问题，我使用了1979年全国青年纵向调查(NLSY79)中的母子数据和收入动态小组研究(PSID)中关于年轻人受教育程度的数据。这些具有全国代表性的大型纵向调查对少数群体进行了抽样，很好地衡量了儿童时期的社会经济状况和家庭规模，并提供了一套丰富的关于认知和行为发展及学业成就的衡量标准。NLSY79的数据被用来探索出生顺序对儿童时期发展结果的影响。出生顺序对学业成就的长期影响是使用PSID的教育数据进行调查的。在样本更大、更具代表性的情况下，所提出的经验模型能够较好地识别出生顺序和完整家庭规模效应对儿童成就的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Numerous studies have addressed the role of birth order on cognitive ability measures but to date little consensus has emerged. Most of the existing evidence of a negative relationship between birth order and child cognitive development and achievement is based on conventional regression analysis using cross-sectional data. In particular, no research has investigated the effect of birth order on the development of young children using large sibling samples. I propose to investigate the role of birth order on child development and scholastic achievement using better data and methods. I will also assess the role of ultimately completed family size and how it relates to the effect of birth order on child development. Specifically, I will investigate whether (1) children who are late in the birth order face elevated risks of adverse developmental and scholastic outcomes, (2) the birth order effect is causal or the result of spurious correlation, (3) there is an independent effect of ultimately completed family size on development, (4) the birth order and completed family size effects differ for minority and low-income families, (5) the effect of birth order on behavioral development differs from its effect on cognitive development, (6) the birth order, completed family size, and sibling spacing have long-term effects on scholastic attainment. In order to study these issues I use mother-child data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and data on the educational attainment of young adults from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). These large nationally representative longitudinal surveys that over sample minorities provide good measures of the socio-economic conditions and family size during childhood and a rich set of measures of cognitive and behavioral development and scholastic achievement. The NLSY79 data are used to explore the effects of birth order on developmental outcomes during childhood. Longer-term effects of birth order on attainment are investigated using schooling data from the PSID. With larger and more representative samples, the proposed empirical models can properly identify the effect of birth order and complete family size effects on child achievements.