New Methods of Studying Aging, Health and Longevity: Combining Longitudinal Data

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目的广泛，长期目标是制定一种方法，通过开发工具，整合不同类型的纵向数据，并制定技术，将生物学激励的信息与衰老相关的变化纳入开发的模型中，对老龄化个体的健康相关变化进行综合分析。这种方法的主要思想是对使用不同观测计划收集的数据进行联合统计分析。分析将基于描述生理状态和健康/福祉/生存状态的关节年龄相关变化的综合数学和计算机模型。为了详细阐述这些模式和方法，将探讨以下具体目标。1)阐述能够描述个人生理历史及其对疾病和死亡风险的影响的健康、死亡率和衰老的先进模型。在这些模型中纳入描述特定年龄生理指标“正常”值范围的能力。推广这些模型，扩展它们来研究相关竞争风险的问题，并将其应用于生理和健康/福祉变化的数据。2)详细阐述方法和相应的数学和计算机模型，用于调查应激抵抗力下降率中隐藏的异质性对被视为风险因素函数的疾病和死亡风险形状的影响。3)将描述个人健康/福祉状况重大变化的有限状态连续时间成分纳入详细模型。公共卫生相关性：拟议的分析是直接相关的公共卫生问题，因为它是专门设计的参数估计，以提高个性化和人口范围内的预测老年人的健康/福祉/生存状况的质量，以及评估可能的健康/福祉预防干预措施的效果提高准确性的模型。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The broad, long-term objective of the project is to elaborate an approach for a comprehensive analysis of health-related changes in aging individuals by developing tools for integration of distinct types of longitudinal data and elaboration of techniques for incorporation of the biologically-motivated information on aging associated changes into the developed models. The key idea of this approach is to perform joint statistical analyses of data collected using different observational plans. The analyses will be based on comprehensive mathematical and computer models describing joint age related changes in physiological state and health/well-being/survival status. To elaborate such models and methods the following specific aims will be addressed. 1) Elaborate advanced models of health, mortality and aging capable of describing individual physiological histories and their effects on risk of disease and death. Incorporate in these models the ability to describe the range of "normal" values of physiological indices specific for a given age. Generalize these models extending them to investigate the problem of dependent competing risks and apply them to data on physiological and health/well-being changes. 2) Elaborate methods and respective mathematical and computer models for investigation of effects of hidden heterogeneity in the rate of decline in stress resistance on the shape of the risks of disease and death considered as functions of risk factors. 3) Incorporate finite-state continuous-time component describing major changes in individual's health/well- being status into the elaborated models. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed analysis is directly relevant to public health issues since it is specifically designed to develop models with increased accuracy of parameter estimates for improving quality of individualized and population-wide predictions of health/well-being/survival status of the elderly individuals as well as for evaluating the effect of possible health/well-being preventive interventions.