Climate Variability / Change and the Risks for a Spectrum of Diseases

项目概述/摘要：气候变化影响环境，增加极端天气事件的频率和强度。因此，其公共卫生影响可能是巨大的。然而，在了解气候因素与健康之间的关系方面仍有许多不确定因素。主要差距包括对发病率结果的研究相对缺乏，缺乏衡量个别气象因素联合影响的综合指数，关于公共卫生负担评估的数据很少，以及将当地研究成果直接应用于公共卫生实践的转化研究很少。我们提出的研究将通过评估各种气象因素对一些未充分研究结果的独立和联合影响，并将我们的发现转化为气候健康监测系统和公共交流/教育，来填补这些空白。生物学上看似合理但研究不足的健康结果，包括蜱传和水/食源性疾病，不良出生结果和与寒冷相关的疾病，将在纽约州（NYS）的极端天气条件，气候变化，特殊天气事件以及个人气候因素（包括温度，湿度，气压和风）的季节调节作用方面进行检查。空间天气分类II系统是由五个气象变量衍生的综合天气指数，也将用于评估这些结果以及其他更常研究的结果，如呼吸系统、心血管、肾脏和热相关疾病的影响。社会人口因素和母婴特征等潜在的混杂因素将得到控制，气候因素和空气污染物之间的相互影响将得到评估。我们还将努力确定老年人、婴儿、少数民族、生活在贫困线以下的人、孕妇、市中心居民或已有慢性病的人等弱势群体是否不成比例地受到极端气候或气候变化的影响。对于除不良出生结局外的所有结局，将使用病例交叉设计或时间序列分析来控制时变变量，在控制地区差异后，将使用两阶段贝叶斯分层模型来评估区域效应以及全州效应（病例对照设计将用于研究出生结局）。本研究旨在评估天气对一些重要但研究不足的健康终点的影响，评估气候因素的联合影响，并将当地的研究结果和数据整合到正在进行的环境公共卫生跟踪（EPHT）系统和公共卫生教育中。这项工作将提高我们对气候因素如何作为一个空气系统共同影响健康的理解，确定对天气敏感的疾病和人群，并确定最危险的天气因素。我们的多学科研究团队将使用通过正在进行的纽约州项目收集和地理编码的数据、现成的环境和健康数据集以及已建立的EPHT系统，以确保拟议的研究是可行的、有效的和可持续的。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Climate Variability / Change and the Risks for Under-Studied Adverse Health Outcomes Project Summary / Abstract Climate change affects the environment and increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Thus, its public health impact could be substantial. Many uncertainties remain in understanding the relationship between climate factors and health, however. Major gaps include the relative paucity of research on morbidity outcomes, lack of a composite index to measure the joint effects of individual meteorological factors, little data on the assessment of the public health burden, and few translational studies to directly apply local research findings into public health practice. Our proposed study will fill these gaps by evaluating both the independent and joint effects of various meteorological factors on some under-studied outcomes and translating our findings into a climate-health surveillance system and into public communication/education. Biologically-plausible but under-studied health outcomes, including tick-borne and water/food-borne diseases, adverse birth outcomes, and cold-related diseases will be examined in relation to extreme weather conditions, climate variability, special weather events, and the season-modifying effect of individual climate factors including temperature, humidity, air pressure, and wind in New York State (NYS). The Spatial Synoptic Classification II system, a composite weather index derived from five meteorological variables, will also be used to assess the impact of joint effects on these outcomes as well as other more commonly studied outcomes such as respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and heat-related disease. Potential confounders such as socio-demographic factors and maternal/infant characteristics will be controlled and the interactive effects between climate factors and air pollutants will be assessed. We will also try to determine if vulnerable populations such as the elderly, infants, minorities, people living below the poverty level, pregnant women, inner-city residents, or people with pre-existing chronic diseases are disproportionately affected by climate extremes or variability. For all outcomes except adverse birth outcomes, the case-crossover design or time- series analysis will be used to control for time-varying variables, and a two-stage Bayesian Hierarchical model will be used to assess regional effects as well as state-wide effects after controlling for regional differences (the case-control design will be used to study the birth outcomes). This study represents a unique effort to assess weather effects on some important but under-studied health endpoints, evaluating the joint effects of climate factors, and integrating local findings and data into the ongoing Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT) system and public health education. This effort will improve our understanding of how climate factors jointly affect health as an air system, identify weather-sensitive diseases and populations, and identify the most hazardous weather factors. Our multi-disciplinary research team will use data already collected and geo- coded through ongoing NYS projects, readily available environmental and health data sets, and an established EPHT system to ensure the proposed study is feasible, efficient, and sustainable. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Climate Variability / Change and the Risks for Under-Studied Adverse Health Outcomes Narrative The proposed study will help us understand how weather factors, both individually, and jointly as a climate system, affect human health. It will be the first study or one of the few studies to assess some important but under-studied health outcomes including vector-borne diseases, water/food-borne diseases, adverse birth outcomes, and cold-related diseases. The findings from this study will be integrated into the current Environmental and Public Health Tracking Program in New York State to develop a climate-health surveillance system and guide the state environmental and health agencies to plan intervention strategies and preparedness programs.