The potential for groundwater systems in the Rocky Mountains to buffer climate variability and change

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Rivers originating in the Canadian Rocky Mountains are critically important for water supplies of downstream communities across the Prairie Provinces, and for the aquatic ecosystems of these rivers. The Rocky Mountain rivers have strong seasonality characterized by high flow during May-August and low flow during the rest of the year. The stability of low flow is particularly important for water supplies and the aquatic ecosystems that are dependent on the baseflow sustained by groundwater discharge. It is expected that climate warming will alter the magnitude of snow accumulation, shift the timing of snowmelt, and decrease the areal extent of alpine glaciers in the headwaters of these rivers. However, its effects on the baseflow of mountain reivers is difficult to predict, because groundwater storage and release mechanisms in headwater catchments have not been well understood. This presents a major knowledge gap for hydrological model prediction, which in turn hinders the Prairie Province's ability to develop science-based water management policies and guidelines. The proposed project aims to fill this knowledge gap and build scientific tools to simulate river baseflow under present and future conditions. The key objectives are to synthesize field-based knowledge of alpine groundwater accumulated over the past 15 years, develop relatively simple mathematical tools to represent the storage capacity of alpine aquifers, integrate the new mathematical tools in the operational hydrological model used by the Alberta Government, and examine the response of river baseflow to climatic variability. The knowledge generated from the project will be used by the governments of Alberta and other Prairie Provinces to inform their policy decisions regarding the water resource management and environmental protection.