Impact of Climate-Responsive Design on Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in La

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究的目的是评估气候响应设计策略的潜力，以减轻气候变化对美国大城市热相关健康的影响。具体而言，本项目将模拟2010年至2050年期间美国三个主要都市地区的替代性土地开发情景对温度变化的影响，并量化每种情景对两类与热有关的暴露（高水平环境热量和空气污染加剧）相关的公共健康结果的影响。鉴于最近的研究发现，许多大城市地区的变暖速度等于或大于整个地球的变暖速度- -这一趋势归因于城市热岛效应的迅速增长- -本项目将调查积极减少城市热岛效应战略的潜力，包括广泛增强城市植被和地表反射率。抵消持续的城市发展和全球温室效应带来的变暖趋势。由于目前平均而言，过高的温度造成的年度死亡人数比任何其他形式的极端天气都要多，因此迫切需要调查城市土地利用规划的潜力，以减缓预计的变暖趋势。本研究的研究方法包括四个主要步骤：1。利用卫星图像模拟2010年至2050年间三个地理和形态多样的大都市地区与历史驱动的“一切照旧”和其他气候响应设计情景相关的区域土地覆盖变化；2. 利用区域尺度气象模式量化各城市发展情景下都市土地覆盖变化对气温、湿度和风速的影响；3. 根据未来一年的气象条件（反映每种土地覆盖情景）、排放清单和通过全球气候模式（GCM）导出的区域气候参数，估算对流层臭氧（O3）和细颗粒物（PM2.5）的区域浓度；4. 按单独和综合土地覆盖情景估计区域人口发病率和死亡率在两个气候驱动因素（热暴露和空气污染加剧）下的变化。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The intent of this proposed research is to assess the potential for climate-responsive design strategies to mitigate the heat-related health impacts of climate change in large U.S. cities over a multi-decadal planning horizon. Specifically, this project will model the influence of alternative land development scenarios on temperature change in three major metropolitan areas of the United States between 2010 and 2050 and quantify the effects of each scenario on public health outcomes related to two classes of heat-related exposure: high levels of ambient heat and intensified concentrations of air pollution. In light of recent research finding the rate of warming in many large urban areas to be equal to or greater than that of the planet as a whole - a trend attributed to rapid growth in the urban heat island effect (UHI) - this project will investigate the potential for aggressive UHI abatement strategies, including the widespread enhancement of urban vegetation and surface reflectivity, to counteract warming trends brought about through continued urban development and the global greenhouse effect. As excessive temperatures are now responsible for more annual fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather, there is a critical need to investigate the potential for land use planning in cities to abate projected warming trends. The research approach for this study consists of four principal steps: 1. Employ satellite imagery to model regional land cover change associated with a historically-driven "business as usual" and alternative climate-responsive design scenarios across three geographically and morphologically diverse metropolitan areas between 2010 and 2050; 2. Quantify with a regional-scale meteorological model the effects of metropolitan land cover change associated with each urban development scenario on air temperature, humidity, and windspeed; 3. Estimate regional concentrations of tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in response to future year meteorological conditions (reflective of each land cover scenario), emissions inventories, and regional climate parameters derived through a global climate model (GCM); 4. Estimate by individual and combined land cover scenarios changes in regional population morbidity and mortality in response to two climatologically driven factors: heat exposure and enhanced air pollution. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This study will quantify the impact of climate change on heat-related threats to public health resulting from a greater incidence of excessively hot days and an intensification of air pollution within cities. The results of this research are intended to improve public health in cities by identifying specific land use planning strategies related to regional vegetative cover and surface reflectivity designed to minimize the intensity of the urban heat island effect and to improve urban air quality.