Innovative Modeling of Puberty and Substance Use Risk

青春期和药物使用风险的创新建模

• 批准号: 7563938
• 负责人: BIN HUANG
• 金额: $ 21.22万
• 依托单位: CINCINNATI CHILDRENS HOSP MED CTR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-04-10 至 2010-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7563938
• 关键词: Acting Out; Address; Adolescent; Aggressive behavior; Alcohol or Other Drugs use; Alcohols; Arts; Bayesian Method; Behavior; Behavioral; Biological Assay; Brain; Child; Collaborations; Complex; Conduct Disorder; Data; Data Set; Development; Endocrinology; Ensure; Environment; Figs - dietary; Funding; Goals; Hormonal; Hormones; Institution; Interdisciplinary Study; Intervention; Knowledge; Life; Literature; Longevity; Measurement; Measures; Mediating; Mediator of activation protein; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Outcome; Pathway interactions; Positioning Attribute; Problem behavior; Process; Psychiatric Diagnosis; Psychopathology; Puberty; Research; Research Design; Research Personnel; Resources; Risk; Risk Behaviors; Risk Factors; Role; Sampling; Staging; Statistical Methods; Statistical Models; Substance abuse problem; Symptoms; Techniques; Theoretical model; Tobacco use; Treatment/Psychosocial Effects; Work; age group; analytical method; anti social; base; computerized tools; critical period; early adolescence; expectation; indexing; innovation; meetings; neurochemistry; novel; novel strategies; programs; response; statistics; substance use prevention; theories

The pubertal transition represents one of the most critical periods for the development of psychopathology and risk for later substance use due to extensive and simultaneous hormonal, physical, and social-role changes occurring during this period. Current developmental theories suggest that hormone concentrations have a direct neurochemical effect and indirect psychosocial effect on risk behavior during the pubertal transition. Assessing these direct and indirect effects will provide critical knowledge for constructing effective early substance use prevention or intervention approaches for children and adolescents. However, such knowledge is lacking due to (a) measurement error in characterization of puberty and (b) lack of adequate statistical methodology to differentiate direct and indirect effects. In response to the PA-03-044, "Risk Factors of Psychopathology Using Existing Data Sets", we propose to assess the direct and indirect effects of hormone concentrations on substance use risk during the pubertal transitional period using an exceptional datasetfrom an NIH-funded study (5R01MH058393-03). Our novel analytical approach is a synthesis and extension of two advanced statistical techniques in order to both correct for the measurement error in puberty and to assess the direct and indirect effects based on statistical causal inference. Our aims are:(1) To assess direct and indirect effects of hormone concentrations on substance use risk during the pubertal transition using existing and new methods and to compare the results from both. (2) To develop a more accurate and informative method and a computational tool for modeling the pubertal maturation process and correcting for measurement error via a Bayesian approach. (3) To extend our generalized mediational model for assessing direct and indirect mediational effects considering latent mediator and/or latent outcome variables. The proposed work is innovative both in the field of substance use and statistical application. The study is expected to fill the gap of knowledge in early adolescent developmental substance use by examining pathways between substance use and abuse risk and the rise of hormones during the pubertal transition. It will also contribute to the statistical literature on modeling longitudinal pubertal maturational process and complex mediating mechanisms.

青春期过渡是精神病理学发展最关键的时期之一 由于广泛且同时发生的荷尔蒙、身体和社会作用，导致后期物质使用的风险 在此期间发生的变化。目前的发育理论表明，激素浓度 对青春期危险行为有直接的神经化学作用和间接的社会心理影响 过渡。评估这些直接和间接影响将为构建有效的 针对儿童和青少年的早期药物使用预防或干预方法。然而，这样的 由于(a)青春期特征的测量误差和(b)缺乏足够的知识而缺乏知识 区分直接和间接影响的统计方法。作为对 PA-03-044 的回应，“风险 使用现有数据集的精神病理学因素”，我们建议评估直接和间接影响 使用特殊的方法研究青春期过渡期间激素浓度对物质使用风险的影响 数据集来自 NIH 资助的研究 (5R01MH058393-03)。我们新颖的分析方法是综合和 扩展了两种先进的统计技术，以便纠正测量误差 青春期并根据统计因果推断评估直接和间接影响。我们的目标是：(1) 评估青春期激素浓度对物质使用风险的直接和间接影响 使用现有方法和新方法进行过渡，并比较两者的结果。 (2) 开发更多 准确且信息丰富的方法和计算工具，用于模拟青春期成熟过程和 通过贝叶斯方法校正测量误差。 (3) 扩展我们的广义中介模型 用于评估考虑潜在中介和/或潜在结果的直接和间接中介效应 变量。拟议的工作在物质使用和统计应用领域均具有创新性。这 研究预计将通过检查青少年早期发育物质使用来填补知识空白 物质使用和滥用风险与青春期过渡期间激素上升之间的途径。它 还将为纵向青春期成熟过程建模的统计文献做出贡献 复杂的中介机制。