Declining Teen Fertility and Increasing Population Heterogeneity within the Latino/Hispanic Population Supplement

项目摘要 这项拟议中的研究重点是美国西班牙裔/拉丁裔青少年生育 （西班牙语：Hispanic）美国青少年生育率的下降是普遍的， 近年来，在西班牙裔/拉丁裔青少年中特别多。鉴于其 青少年出生的比例不成比例（2017年超过三分之一的青少年出生是西班牙裔 青少年），西班牙裔出生率的下降占了最近下降的很大一部分 在全国青少年出生率。然而，除了出生数据报告之外， 考虑到巨大的异质性， 以及西班牙裔人口的显著变化。这种丰富的描述是必不可少的， 尽管经常被忽略，但还是要参与到更广泛的任务中， 和远端）的西班牙裔青少年生育率令人印象深刻的下降。我们利用近30年的 出生数据（1991-2018），以首先确定西班牙裔青少年出生率的下降是否 广泛分布或仅限于特定亚组（根据不同组合进行交叉分类 出生地，出生地，美国的地理位置，年龄和婚姻状况）。二是 采用分解分析来判断不同的解释（即成分 变化与未观察到的行为变化）。第三，通过 在拟议的行政补充中，我们建议延长分析的时间范围， 涵盖COVID-19前后的时代。2019冠状病毒病对全球 西班牙裔人口促使我们专注于确定COVID-19大流行如何 改变了西班牙裔美国人的青春期和早期生育能力。我们的方法将 揭示了更全面地了解西班牙裔青少年的基本模式 生育率，包括它如何（或没有）改变和任何观察到的变化的原因。

Project Summary The proposed study focuses on adolescent childbearing among the U.S. Hispanic/Latina (hereafter: Hispanic) population. Declines in teen fertility in the U.S have been widespread and, in recent years, have been particularly large among Hispanic/Latina adolescents. Given their disproportionate share of teen births (over one-third of all teen births in 2017 were to Hispanic teens), the drop in the Hispanic birth rate accounts for a substantial portion of the recent decline in the national teen birth rate. Beyond birth data reports, however, there has been no formal demographic accounting of these unprecedented declines that considers the vast heterogeneity and significant changes in the Hispanic population. This kind of rich description is an essential, albeit frequently bypassed, step in the broader tasks of identifying the causes (both proximate and distal) of the impressive declines in Hispanic teen fertility. We leverage nearly 30 years of Natality data (1991-2018) to first determine if declines in Hispanic teen birth rates have been widespread or exclusive to particular sub-groups (cross-classified by different combinations of region-of-origin, nativity, geographic location in the U.S., age, and marital status). Second, we employ decomposition analysis to adjudicate between different explanations (i.e. compositional shifts vs. unobserved behavioral changes) behind any documented declines. Third, via the proposed administrative supplement, we propose to extend the time frame of our analysis to cover the pre and post COVID-19 eras. The alarmingly disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on the Hispanic population motivates our focus on determining how the COVID-19 pandemic has altered adolescent and early fertility among Hispanic Americans. Together, our approach will reveal patterns that are essential to a more comprehensive understanding of Hispanic teen fertility, including how it has (or has not) changed and the reasons for any observed changes.