Determining longitudinal trends and risk factors for adolescent reproductive health

项目摘要 这项拟议中的研究重点是美国西班牙裔/拉丁裔青少年生育 （西班牙语：Hispanic）美国青少年生育率的下降是普遍的， 近年来，在西班牙裔/拉丁裔青少年中特别多。鉴于其 青少年出生的比例不成比例（2017年超过三分之一的青少年出生是西班牙裔 青少年），西班牙裔出生率的下降占了最近下降的很大一部分 在全国青少年出生率。然而，除了出生数据报告之外， 考虑到巨大的异质性， 以及西班牙裔人口的显著变化。这种丰富的描述是必不可少的， 尽管经常被忽略，但还是要参与到更广泛的任务中， 和远端）的西班牙裔青少年生育率令人印象深刻的下降。我们利用近30年的 出生数据（1991-2018），以首先确定西班牙裔青少年出生率的下降是否 广泛分布或仅限于特定亚组（根据不同组合进行交叉分类 出生地，出生地，美国的地理位置，年龄和婚姻状况）。二是 采用分解分析来判断不同的解释（即成分 变化与未观察到的行为变化）。我们一起， 方法将揭示模式，是必不可少的，以更全面的了解 西班牙裔青少年生育能力，包括它如何（或没有）改变，以及任何原因 观察到的变化通过识别青少年持续生育风险的亚组， 观察到的下降的来源，这项研究将有助于告知持续的政策和方案 工作重点是预防少女怀孕。

Project Summary The proposed study focuses on adolescent childbearing among the U.S. Hispanic/Latina (hereafter: Hispanic) population. Declines in teen fertility in the U.S have been widespread and, in recent years, have been particularly large among Hispanic/Latina adolescents. Given their disproportionate share of teen births (over one-third of all teen births in 2017 were to Hispanic teens), the drop in the Hispanic birth rate accounts for a substantial portion of the recent decline in the national teen birth rate. Beyond birth data reports, however, there has been no formal demographic accounting of these unprecedented declines that considers the vast heterogeneity and significant changes in the Hispanic population. This kind of rich description is an essential, albeit frequently bypassed, step in the broader tasks of identifying the causes (both proximate and distal) of the impressive declines in Hispanic teen fertility. We leverage nearly 30 years of Natality data (1991-2018) to first determine if declines in Hispanic teen birth rates have been widespread or exclusive to particular sub-groups (cross-classified by different combinations of region-of-origin, nativity, geographic location in the U.S., age, and marital status). Second, we employ decomposition analysis to adjudicate between different explanations (i.e. compositional shifts vs. unobserved behavioral changes) behind any documented declines. Together, our approach will reveal patterns that are essential to a more comprehensive understanding of Hispanic teen fertility, including how it has (or has not) changed and the reasons for any observed changes. By identifying sub-groups at continued teen childbearing risk and identifying the sources of observed declines, this study will help inform continuing policy and programmatic efforts focused on adolescent pregnancy prevention.