A climate and host community driven Ixodes population and infection dynamics model

气候和宿主社区驱动的硬蜱种群和感染动态模型

• 批准号: 10044759
• 负责人: David Allen
• 金额: $ 33.2万
• 依托单位: MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10044759
• 关键词: Affect; Animals; Area; Behavior; Biology; Black-legged Tick; Borrelia burgdorferi; Climate; Communities; Competence; Country; Coupling; Data; Data Set; Deer; Development; Disease; Effectiveness; Emerging Communicable Diseases; Empiricism; Environment; Excision; Goals; Health; Health Benefit; Human; Humidity; Infection; Ixodes; Joints; Literature; Lyme Disease; Methods; Modeling; Modification; Occupations; Output; Population; Population Dynamics; Protocols documentation; Public Health; Research; Research Design; Research Personnel; Resources; Rodent; Running; Source; Structure; Study models; Temperature; Testing; Tick Control; Tick-Borne Diseases; Ticks; United States; Vaccines; Validation; Variant; Vector-transmitted infectious disease; Work; acaricide; base; college; combat; computer code; cost efficient; density; design; disorder control; disorder prevention; infection rate; novel; predictive modeling; real world application; success; theories; tick feeding; tool; undergraduate student; vector tick

Project Summary Lyme disease is an emerging infectious disease with an estimated 300,000 cases every year in the United States. The disease is transmitted from its animal reservoirs to humans by ticks. There is currently no vaccine available, as such Lyme disease prevention and control are of the utmost importance. Lyme disease control methods (e.g., deer or rodent-targeted acaricide, host removal, rodent-targeted vaccines, etc.) are effective over small spatial and temporal scales in research settings. But largescale tick and Lyme disease control have been unsuccessful. One reason for this is that the efficacy of a control strategy depends on the climate and tick-host community where it is applied. A tool to evaluate potential tick strategies is needed. A tick population and infection dynamics model would provide such a tool. This model could predict the reduction in the infected tick density for a control strategy in a given environmental context. Here we propose to develop, parameterize, and validate such a model. This model will then be able to test tick control strategies; it will provide a valuable tool for tick control. For the model to be accurate it needs to be encoded with a realistic representation of the mechanisms which drive tick population and infection dynamics. Tick populations are largely driven by climate and the tick-host community. We will construct the model together with an empirical study designed to parameterize it. This tight coupling of theory and empiricism is very powerful. We will parameterize the model using a novel field-based, climate-manipulation method. We will encode a realistic tick host community structure into the model. Previous tick population models had a simplistic representation of host community structure, which limited their ability to predict tick density. Finally, validation — testing a model's prediction against an independent data set — is a necessary step for any modeling study, however previous tick population models' predictions of tick density have not been validated. Here we will validate our model's prediction of tick density and infection against an independently collected nation-wide tick density and infection data set. The final parameterized and validated model will be a powerful tool when designing and implementing tick control strategies. This will have critical human health benefits for the control of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases. We will make the computer code to run the model publicly available. This will be a great resource to tick-borne disease researchers.

项目摘要 莱姆病是一种新出现的传染病，每年估计有30万例， 美国的这种疾病通过蜱虫从动物宿主传播给人类。有 目前没有可用的疫苗，因此莱姆病的预防和控制是最重要的 重要性莱姆病控制方法（例如，鹿或啮齿动物为目标的杀螨剂，主机去除， 针对啮齿动物的疫苗等）在研究环境中的小空间和时间尺度上是有效的。 但大规模的蜱虫和莱姆病控制一直不成功。其中一个原因是， 控制策略的有效性取决于其应用所在地的气候和蜱虫宿主群落。一个工具 来评估潜在的蜱虫策略。蜱虫种群和感染动力学模型将 提供这样的工具。该模型可以预测控制的感染蜱密度的减少 在特定的环境背景下。在这里，我们建议开发、参数化和验证 这样的模型。这个模型将能够测试蜱控制策略;它将提供一个有价值的工具 来控制蜱虫 为了使模型准确，它需要使用 驱动蜱虫种群和感染动态的机制。蜱虫数量主要是由 气候和蜱虫宿主群落。我们将结合实证研究构建模型 这种理论和物理学的紧密结合非常强大。我们将 使用一种新的基于场的气候操纵方法对模型进行参数化。我们将编码一个 模拟真实的蜱虫宿主群落结构。以前的蜱虫种群模型有一个简单的 宿主群落结构的代表性，这限制了他们预测蜱虫密度的能力。最后， 验证--根据独立的数据集测试模型的预测--是 任何建模研究，然而，以前的蜱虫种群模型对蜱虫密度的预测还没有被 验证.在这里，我们将验证我们的模型对蜱密度和感染的预测， 独立收集的全国蜱虫密度和感染数据集。 最终的参数化和验证模型将是设计和 实施蜱虫控制策略。这将对控制莱姆病产生重要的人类健康益处 疾病和其他蜱传疾病。我们将使计算机代码公开运行该模型 available.这将是一个伟大的资源蜱传疾病的研究人员。