Project 2: Mathematical modeling of factors that influence children's respiratory health

项目概要/摘要 美国西部农村地区儿童呼吸系统健康的负担和差异增加 与城市中心相比。在美国西部特别令人担忧的是更激烈的野火， 增加周边地区空气污染，影响区域空气质量。评估下呼吸道 西部一些地区的LRTI风险也因复杂的地形而复杂化， 冬季和夏季常见的逆温事件期间的空气质量梯度。全面 了解农村被忽视的高危人群中LRTI流行的潜在机制， 州一级，如蒙大拿州，很穷。因此，对多维社会的深入调查- 必须进行影响儿童呼吸系统健康的人口-气候-污染过程， 改进适当政策和公共卫生行动，以解决当前和未来的气候污染问题 挑战我们将收集多个数据源，包括新的野火引起的暴露和反演 易感层，以描述呼吸道感染的分布，时间和强度， 蒙塔纳的孩子们（目标1）。我们将开发三个独立的，严格的，科学的辩护模型， 框架，以帮助确定蒙大拿州儿童中LRTI的因果驱动因素（目标2）。最后我们将 制定蒙大拿州LRTI风险指数，可用作蒙大拿州当前风险的指标， 衡量进展，分析趋势，并量化蒙大拿州公众LRTI风险的不确定性。我们 组合测绘和监视平台、数据同化和多模型方法以及LRTI风险 评估指数将大大有助于确定蒙大拿州的LRTI的公共卫生威胁 孩子最终，我们将产生的结果将为干预措施提供信息，以减轻儿童中的LRTI， 山作为一个中间步骤，该项目的调查结果将用于利用和设计一个扩大的 美国西部的LRTI研究

Project Summary/Abstract Rural areas of the western U.S. experience an increased burden and disparities in children's respiratory health compared to urban centers. Of particular concern in the western U.S. are more intense wildfires, which increase air pollution in surrounding areas and affect regional air quality. Assessing lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) risk in some areas of the west is also complicated by complex topography, which creates steep air quality gradients during inversion events common in both winter and summer. A comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying LRTI epidemics among neglected at-risk populations at the rural state level, such as Montana, is poor. Thus a thorough investigation of the multidimensional socio- demographic-climate-pollution processes affecting children's respiratory health must be conducted in order to improve adequate policy and public health actions to address both current and future climate-pollution challenges. We will gather multiple data sources, including novel wildfire-induced exposure and inversion prone layers, in order to describe the distribution, timing and intensity of respiratory infections unique to Montana's children (Aim 1). We will develop three independent, rigorous, and scientifically-defensible modeling frameworks to help identify the causal drivers of LRTIs among children in Montana (Aim 2). Finally, we will develop a Montana LRTI risk index that can be used as an indicator for current risk within Montana and a means to measure progress, analyze trends, and quantify uncertainty in LRTI risk for Montana's public. Our combined mapping and surveillance platform, data assimilation and multi-modeling approach, and LRTI risk assessment index will greatly help the identification of public health threats of LRTIs among Montana's children. Ultimately, the results we will generate will inform interventions to mitigate LRTI among children in MT. As an intermediate step, the findings from this project will be used to leverage and design an expanded study of LRTI throughout the western U.S.