Longer term effects of a natural disaster on health and socio-economic status

摘要 极端事件的暴露在全球许多地区越来越普遍，这是由于 天气模式与海平面上升相结合，但缺乏支持科学研究的数据 这种接触对人口健康和福祉的长期影响。明星，研究的对象 海啸的善后和恢复，是一个独特的例外。我们采访了来自10个国家的受访者 在2004年12月印度洋地震和海啸发生前的几个月里，这一现象持续了10年。这个项目将紧随其后 在海啸发生15年后，同样的受访者也出现了同样的情况。海啸前的基线是一个人口代表 对生活在印度尼西亚亚齐和北苏门答腊岛沿岸的27,000人进行了调查。这个 海啸在一个被认为不容易发生的地区构成了一场大规模的、意想不到的自然灾害 海啸。此外，它对整个研究区域的影响在空间上是特殊的。无论是一个特定的 社区被海浪淹没取决于海浪的方向、海床和 海岸线地形。在368个基准社区中，约五分之一的社区遭到破坏，三分之一的社区有所改善 受损，其余的没有受到直接影响。自然实验的这些特点为 确定这场导致研究区17万人死亡的重大自然灾害的因果影响。 本项目前一阶段收集的基线波和六波海啸后波提供了详细的 关于灾难的暴露和经历以及健康和福祉的演变的信息， 广义上，对于海啸中幸存下来的基线受访者加上新的家庭成员。在每一个中 随后，我们采访了95%的基线幸存者。在接下来的节目中，我们将重新采访所有 海啸发生15年后的基线幸存者及其家庭成员。我们将把这些数据放在 公有领域，再加上此前已在公有领域的一波又一波明星，创造出无与伦比的数据 科学界的资源。 重点关注那些在孩提时代(12岁和当时在子宫中)暴露在海啸中的人，我们将 调查海啸暴露对健康、教育和认知能力演变的影响， 将成果与家庭和社区的物质和心理社会资源的变化联系起来 提升资源档次。后者将结合管理数据和从 使用机器学习的卫星图像。在海啸发生15年后，更长期的影响将利用 创新的人力资本指标，包括生物标记物、执行功能和情绪反应性。损失 父母中的一方或双方都是最极端的暴露人群之一。我们将探索孤儿的因果关系。 通过比较在海啸中失去父母的儿童和在同一社区中没有失去父母的儿童。

Abstract Exposures to extreme events are increasingly common in many parts of the globe as a function of changes in weather patterns combined with rising sea levels, but there is a paucity of data to support scientific research on the implications of such exposures for population health and well-being over the long-term. STAR, the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery, is a unique exception. We have interviewed respondents from 10 months before the December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami for 10 years. This project will follow up the same respondents 15 years after the tsunami. The pre-tsunami baseline is a population-representative survey of 27,000 individuals who were living along the coast of Aceh and North Sumatra, Indonesia. The tsunami constitutes a large-scale, unanticipated natural disaster in an area that was not thought to be prone to tsunamis. Moreover, its impacts were spatially idiosyncratic across the study area. Whether a particular community was inundated by the waves depended on a combination of the wave direction, seabed and shoreline topography. Of 368 baseline communities, about a fifth were devastated, a third were somewhat damaged and the rest were not directly affected. These features of the natural experiment provide the basis for identifying causal impacts of this major natural disaster which killed 170,000 people in the study area. The baseline and six post-tsunami waves collected during the prior phase of this project provide detailed information about exposure to and experience of the disaster and the evolution of health and wellbeing, broadly defined, for baseline respondents who survived the tsunami plus new household members. In each follow-up, we have interviewed 95% of all baseline survivors. In this continuation we will re-interview all baseline survivors and their household members fifteen years after the tsunami. We will place these data in the public domain, adding to prior waves of STAR already in the public domain to create an unparalleled data resource for the scientific community. Focusing on those who were exposed to the tsunami as children (age <12y and in utero at the time), we will investigate the impacts of tsunami exposure on the evolution of health, education and cognitive performance, linking outcomes to changes in material and psycho-social resources at the family level as well as community level resources. The latter will be measured combining administrative data and information extracted from satellite imagery using machine learning. Longer-term impacts, fifteen years after the tsunami, will exploit innovative human capital measures including biomarkers, executive function and emotional reactivity. Loss of one or both parents is among the most extreme exposures. We will explore the causal effects of orphanhood by comparing children who lost parents in the tsunami with those in the same community who did not.