Migration and Geographic Inequality in Mid-Life Mortality

项目摘要 自2010年以来，我们观察到死亡率的地理不平等急剧增加， 与主要成年年龄的死亡率下降停滞密切相关（即，25-64）。到目前为止，研究人员已经 分析了失业、处方药监测项目、心脏代谢风险的变化 吸烟、教育、医疗保健、国家政策和其他一些因素被认为 影响死亡率的地域差异。一个没有被研究过的过程， 中年死亡率的地理不平等是移徙。移民有巨大的潜力影响地理 死亡率的不平等，因为它不仅构成了一个地区的构成，而且还影响了 一个可能影响死亡率的地方。因此，本项目审查了国际社会的贡献， 死亡率水平和趋势以及死亡率的地域不平等。我们的分析 关注美国国内的不平等以及美国与其他高收入国家之间的不平等。 国家我们使用与死亡率随访相关的生命统计数据和人口普查微观数据， 国内移民集中了健康的、低死亡率的人口， 移徙者在该国特定地区的死亡率，以及通过改变 已被证明影响死亡率水平的地方的特征。我们提供了第一个国家以下的 根据出生率对死亡率的估计，以及美国国内移民对 中年死亡率的地理不平等。使用准实验研究设计，我们确定了因果关系 移徙对非移徙者的影响，这是第一次表明移徙对非移徙者的溢出效应的程度。 美国mortality.虽然各国在外国出生的比例和移民流方面存在差异，但目前还没有 了解移民如何影响死亡率的跨国不平等。我们调查国际 移民导致了美国人的预期寿命缩短，并导致了高收入人群死亡率的变化。 这些指标包括预期寿命、中年死亡率和寿命不平等。一个重要 这个项目的副产品是，我们将发布一个高质量的本地出生的生命表的公共数据库 以及美国和其他高收入国家的外国出生人口，以及公共生活数据库 美国本土和外国出生的人口的地理区域内的表。这个项目 提供了新的理论知识，人们和地方如何应对移民，以及移民的多样性。 死亡率对移徙趋势的动态反应。从方法上讲，该项目建立了一套新的 人口统计学方法，允许基于模型的异质死亡率与 根据个人和县级的特点。它还应用了一套因果方法， 以前被用来研究死亡率，以模拟地理差异的溢出效应， 移民对死亡率的影响。

PROJECT SUMMARY Since 2010, we have observed steep increases in geographic inequality in mortality that have been strongly tied to stalled mortality declines at the prime adult ages (i.e., 25-64). To date, researchers have analyzed the effects of unemployment, prescription drug monitoring programs, changes in cardiometabolic risk, cigarette smoking, education, health care access, state policies, and a number of other factors thought to influence geographic disparities in mortality. One process that has not been examined in relation to rising geographic inequality in mid-life mortality is migration. Migration has enormous potential to impact geographic inequalities in mortality since it not only configures the makeup of an area, but also influences the properties of a place that themselves may impinge on mortality. Thus, this project examines the contribution of international and domestic migration to levels of and trends in mortality and geographic inequality in mortality. Our analyses focus on both inequality within the United States and inequality between the U.S. and other high-income countries. We use vital statistics and census microdata linked to mortality follow-up to assess how international and domestic migration have direct impacts on mortality inequality by concentrating healthy, low-mortality migrants in specific parts of the country, and indirect impacts on non-migrant mortality by reshaping the characteristics of places that have been shown to influence mortality levels. We provide the first subnational estimates of mortality by nativity and the first estimates for the U.S. of the effects of domestic migration on geographic inequality in mid-life mortality. Using a quasi-experimental research design, we identify the causal effect of migration on non-migrants, constituting the first demonstration of the magnitude of spillover effects on U.S. mortality. While countries differ in their proportions foreign-born and in their migration streams, it is not yet known how immigration impacts cross-national inequality in mortality. We investigate how international migration contributes to the U.S. life expectancy shortfall and to variation in mortality across high-income countries, including in measures of life expectancy, mid-life mortality, and lifespan inequality. An important byproduct of this project is that we will release a public database of high-quality life tables for the native-born and foreign-born populations of the U.S. and other high-income countries, as well as a public database of life tables for the native- and foreign-born populations of geographic areas within the United States. This project provides new theoretical knowledge of how people and places respond to migration, and of the multiplicity of dynamic responses of mortality to migration trends. Methodologically, this project builds out a new set of demographic methods that allow model-based heterogeneous mortality rates to be linked to counties on the basis of individual and county-level characteristics. It also applies a set of causal methods that have not previously been used to study mortality in order to model the geographically differentiated spillover effects of migration on mortality.