Predicting and Understanding the Use of Nicotine Products In a Rapidly Evolving Nicotine Marketplace: The International Nicotine Product, Policy, and Market (INPAM) Study

总体摘要/摘要 本P01的拟议续期是基于长期的国际烟草控制(ITC)政策 评估项目，该项目使用了跨国比较和通用调解模式来评估 国家级控烟政策的行为影响。目前的P01已经广泛研究和 记录了香烟和尼古丁蒸发产品之间的转变以及政策如何影响它们的使用。 在续订期间，我们增加了加热烟草产品，从而延长了我们之前的两种产品 模型到三个产品，但在其他方面保持类似的团队结构和研究方法。目标是 这份P01续展申请的目的是解决这样一个问题：不同的国家采取了哪些措施来监管 烟草产品以及这对烟草使用行为产生了怎样的影响？我们共同的综合理论 框架使我们能够检查政策和行业行动如何以及为什么会产生影响，以及探索 在什么条件下，产品或政策干预措施可以转化为实际的人口影响。我们 重点关注已确立的4P--产品、价格、布局和促销，以及公共卫生政策 行业行动会影响消费者的看法、行为，并最终影响健康终端。比较一下 不同国家不同监管方法的经验旨在告知美国公众 政策，基于现有的最好的科学，以最大限度地提高人口健康。为了实现这一目标，我们建议 分析不同司法管辖区的政策和行业行动，以回答以下三个综合问题 问题：1)政策/行业行动是否有影响？(因果关系)；2)在什么条件下 有效吗？(适度)；以及3)它是如何有效的？(调解)。建议的研究评估直接和 可以影响政策或行动的整体影响的间接或非预期影响。我们建议进行这项工作 处理四个相互关联的项目、一个管理核心和两个共享资源核心，它们 集体将：1)跟踪7个国家的成年烟草使用者队列；2)进行重复的横断面调查 对3个国家的青年和青壮年进行调查；3)利用实验烟草市场评估 产品可获得性、政策行动和非法市场的影响；以及4)进行统计建模 使用来自项目的输入来预测消费者的反应。P01的三个具体目标是：1)理解 政策和行业行动如何影响消费者行为；2)制定科学的评估方法 对政策的反应；以及3)预测不同政策方法对人口的影响。

OVERALL SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The proposed renewal of this P01 builds upon the longstanding International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Project, which has used cross-country comparisons and a common mediation model to evaluate the behavioral impacts of national-level tobacco control policies. The current P01 has extensively researched and documented the transitions between cigarettes and nicotine vaping products and how policies impact their use. For the renewal period, we are adding heated tobacco products, thus extending our previous two-product model to three products, but otherwise maintaining a similar team structure and research approach. The goal of this P01 renewal application is to address the question “What have different countries done to regulate tobacco products and how has this impacted tobacco use behaviors?” Our common integrated theoretical framework enables us to examine how and why policies and industry actions exert effects, as well as explore under what conditions products or policy interventions might translate into actual population-level impacts. We focus on the well-established 4 `P's' – product, price, placement, and promotion, and how public health policy and industry actions impact consumer perceptions, behavior, and ultimately health endpoints. Comparing the experiences of different countries with varying regulatory approaches is intended to inform United States public policy, based upon the best science available to maximize population health. To accomplish this, we propose to analyze policies and industry actions in different jurisdictions to answer the following three integrated questions: 1) Does the policy/industry action have an impact? (causality); 2) Under what conditions is it effective? (moderation); and 3) How is it effective? (mediation). The proposed studies assess direct and indirect or unintended effects that can affect the overall impact of a policy or action. We propose to conduct this work with four inter-related Projects, an Administrative Core, and two Shared Resource Cores, which collectively will: 1) track cohorts of adult tobacco users in 7 countries; 2) conduct repeated cross sectional surveys of youth and young adults in 3 countries; 3) utilize the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace to evaluate the effects of product availability, policy actions, and the illicit marketplace; and 4) perform statistical modeling using input from the Projects to predict consumer response. The three P01 specific aims are to: 1) understand how policies and industry actions impact consumer behavior; 2) develop scientific methods for assessing response to policies; and 3) forecast population impact of different policy approaches.