Modeling Spatial and Family Factors in the Transmission of Wealth

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This study will explore statistical methods for separating the effects of spatial location from other effects of families upon children's economic future. In the US today families have a greater influence upon children's future economic status than they do in many other countries, and there is evidence that this influence is increasing over time, but few studies have separated the role of spatial location from other ways families affect their children's lives. Migration affects economic status, even migration in earlier generations, by placing individuals in areas where economic returns are greater and it may be easier to obtain or retain wealth. Since both economic opportunities and families are effects. This project will apply three such techniques to longitudinal data from an historical US population of related individuals. It will examine the extent to which social mobility was possible over generations in a changing economy where people were leaving farming to move to urban areas and take up non-farm work. Bayesian cluster model will explore the extent to which wealth was clustered in space and how the clustering of families affected their wealth Bayesian longitudinal models will study how changes in location over 20 years affected wealth. The migration histories come from a genealogical data base tracing the descendents of 9 ancestors who came to Massachusetts before 1650. Information on household wealth, location and occupation for these descendents will be added from the US manuscript census at three dates: 1850, 1860 and 1870. The genealogies provide the names of women's husbands, allowing us to located women in censuses both before and after marriage, and, thus, to examine how gender affected social mobility. We will study the long term effects of migration decisions in earlier generations which is not possible in contemporary studies. The methods explored in this research should be helpful in studying disease because they separate familial effects whether due to genetics or family environment from the effects of the broader environment or neighborhood. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Health is affected by economic status in many ways, whether through ability to afford treatment, diet, or risks of violent death, all of which differ by social class. This research will help explain why people attain the economic status they have and the extent to which this is passed from generation to generation. The methods explored will be useful for studies of health in which both geographical effects and characteristics of families could be involved, such as determining whether families influence disease more through genetics or the environments where they live.