Dynamic Analyses of Single Motherhood

描述(由申请人提供)：在HD 29550的这一竞争性更新中，我们通过：(1)对婚前第一胎背后的行为子过程进行建模；(2)区分产生第一胎的怀孕发生和解决的结合环境；(3)开发和估计正式的行为模型，其中对未来替代选择的折扣可能随年龄而变化；以及(4)启动对男性非婚生育的研究。为了模拟婚前首次生育背后的子过程，我们考察了性行为的开始、浪漫关系的发生和人力资本的积累如何在性行为发生后的一段时间内影响女性婚前首次生育的风险。为了检验导致第一胎的怀孕发生并得到解决的多重结合环境，我们模拟了单身、同居和已婚女性受孕的非随机选择性，并询问其他未观察到的因素是否有助于解释观察到的受孕和分娩之间结合状态的变化。为了考察非婚怀孕的后果，我们描述了猎枪婚姻稳定性的趋势。为了调查生育成本与避孕成本之间的明显不一致，我们开发和评估了正式的行为模型，以澄清近视、时间不一致、不确定性和误解偏见的潜在作用。}为了检查男性的非婚生育能力，我们调查了男性生育能力和结婚史的质量，并在数据质量的条件下，进行了关于男性非婚生育能力的研究，这将补充我们对女性非婚生育能力的了解。我们建议成立一个多学科研究团队，将新的见解、方法和模型纳入到这些问题的研究中。我们分析了1980年、1985年、1990年和1995年6月当期人口调查、1979年和1997年青年纵向调查、1995年和2002年全国家庭增长调查以及1998-2000年脆弱家庭的数据。如果可能，我们会比较多个数据源的结果。我们始终关注发生在第一次婚姻之前的生育，认识到这种生育是在异质结合和社会背景下发生的，并且对于同时具有观察到的和未观察到的特征的男性和女性来说。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In this competing renewal of HD 29550, we build on our previous studies of the dynamics of nonmarital fertility by: (1) modeling the behavioral subprocesses underlying a premarital first birth; (2) distinguishing between the union contexts in which pregnancies yielding a first birth occur and are resolved; (3) developing and estimating formal behavioral models in which discounts of future alternatives may vary with age; and (4) initiating studies of male nonmarital fertility. To model the subprocesses underlying a premarital first birth, we examine how the onset of sexual activity, occurrence of romantic relationships, and accumulation of human capital influence women's premarital first birth risks in the period following sexual onset. To examine the multiple union contexts in which pregnancies leading to a first birth occur and are resolved, we model the non-random selectivity of conceptions to single, cohabiting, and married women and ask if other unobserved factors help account for an observed change in union status between conception and birth. To examine the consequences of a nonmarital conception, we describe trends in the stability of shotgun marriages. To investigate apparent inconsistencies in the perceived costs of childbearing versus contraception, we develop and estimate formal behavioral models to clarify the potential roles of myopia, time inconsistency, uncertainty, and misperception bias.} To examine men's nonmarital fertility, we investigate the quality of male fertility and union histories and, conditional on data quality, undertake studies of male nonmarital fertility that will complement our knowledge of female nonmarital fertility. We propose a multidisciplinary research team incorporating new insights, methods, and models to the study of these questions. We analyze data from the 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 June Current Population Surveys, the 1979 and 1997 Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, the 1995 and 2002 National Surveys of Family Growth, and the 1998-2000 Fragile Families. When possible, we compare findings across multiple data sources. We focus throughout on births that occur prior to a first marriage, recognizing that such births occur within heterogeneous union and social contexts, and to men and women possessing both observed and unobserved characteristics.