Effects of Alcohol Control Policies on Violent Crime: A Time-Series Analysis

酒精控制政策对暴力犯罪的影响：时间序列分析

• 批准号: 7787800
• 负责人: HOPE CORMAN
• 金额: $ 7.92万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-03-05 至 2012-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7787800
• 关键词: Address; Affect; Age; Alcohol abuse; Alcohol consumption; Alcoholic Beverages; Alcohols; Beer; Beverages; Charge; Cities; Commit; Consumption; Crime; Data; Data Aggregation; Effectiveness; Environment; Family; Fibrinogen; Frequencies; Justice; Knowledge; Laws; Lead; Link; Literature; Location; Measures; Methodology; Murder; Nature; New York City; Policies; Property; Public Policy; Research; Risk Factors; Series; Societies; Taxes; Techniques; Time; Time Series Analysis; Uncertainty; United States; Victimization; Violence; Wine; World Health Organization; assault; base; binge drinking; convict; cost; criminal behavior; drinking; improved; legal drinking age; life time cost; offender; public health relevance; public policy on alcohol; statistics

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Violent crime imposes enormous costs on victims, their families, and society. One factor that has been frequently cited as a potential causal factor in violent crime is the use/abuse of alcohol. Statistics indicate that about half of arrestees in US Cities in 2003 engaged in recent binge drinking, while US data from 1993 indicate that almost half of those convicted on assault and murder charges had been drinking at the time of the incident. Despite the strong positive correlation between alcohol use and violent crime, evidence to date on the effects of alcohol control policies on violent crime is surprisingly limited, and findings are mixed. This application aims to examine the impact of four different alcohol control policies which were implemented in the 1980's and 1990's on violent crime in New York City. We will examine four different types of violent crimes and compare the results to the effects of the policies on non-violent property crimes. We will apply modern time-series econometric techniques that have never been applied to the alcohol policy/crime question, and which will address some of the methodological issues which have hampered most prior research. Specifically, we examine high-frequency (monthly) aggregate data for New York City to: 1) Investigate the relationship between the alcohol policies implemented during our time series and alcohol consumption for three different alcoholic beverages: beer, wine, and spirits, plus a combined measure of alcohol consumption. 2) Examine the relationship between alcohol consumption and violent (and property) crime over a twenty-three year time period (1983 through 2006) using monthly time series data, to address the question of whether an increase (decrease) in alcohol consumption results in an increase (decrease) in violent crime. These will lead to our key analysis: 3) The link between these alcohol-related policies and the extent of violent criminal activity. Analyses in (3) will cover an even longer time span (1970 through 2006). The study will provide evidence on the effectiveness of alcohol control policies as a means of controlling violent criminal behavior, and will have implications for both alcohol and crime policy. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Although the positive correlation between alcohol consumption and violent behavior is well-established, there remains considerable uncertainty about whether alcohol control policies affect violent crime. The purpose of this study is to examine whether changes in alcohol policies affect aggregate alcohol consumption, whether changes in alcohol consumption affect violent behavior, and whether changes in alcohol policies affect violent behavior. The results will inform public policy on the best ways to reduce both alcohol consumption and violent behaviors.

描述（由申请人提供）：暴力犯罪给受害者、他们的家庭和社会带来了巨大的代价。经常被认为是暴力犯罪潜在原因的一个因素是使用/滥用酒精。统计数据显示，2003年在美国城市被捕的人中，约有一半人最近都在酗酒，而1993年的美国数据显示，被判犯有袭击和谋杀罪的人中，几乎有一半在事件发生时正在饮酒。尽管酒精使用与暴力犯罪之间存在强烈的正相关关系，但迄今为止关于酒精控制政策对暴力犯罪的影响的证据令人惊讶地有限，而且调查结果好坏参半。本申请的目的是检查1980年代和1990年代在纽约市实施的四种不同的酒精控制政策对暴力犯罪的影响。我们将研究四种不同类型的暴力犯罪，并将结果与非暴力财产犯罪政策的效果进行比较。我们将应用从未应用于酒精政策/犯罪问题的现代时间序列计量经济学技术，这将解决阻碍大多数先前研究的一些方法问题。具体来说，我们检查了纽约市的高频（每月）汇总数据，以便：1)调查在我们的时间序列中实施的酒精政策与三种不同酒精饮料（啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒）的酒精消费量之间的关系，以及酒精消费量的综合测量。2)使用每月的时间序列数据，检验23年间（1983年至2006年）酒精消费与暴力（和财产）犯罪之间的关系，以解决酒精消费的增加（减少）是否导致暴力犯罪的增加（减少）的问题。这些将导致我们的关键分析：3)这些与酒精有关的政策与暴力犯罪活动的程度之间的联系。(3)中的分析将涵盖更长的时间跨度（1970年至2006年）。这项研究将为酒精控制政策作为控制暴力犯罪行为手段的有效性提供证据，并将对酒精和犯罪政策产生影响。