Statistical Methods In Epidemiology--general

流行病学统计方法——综述

• 批准号: 8148994
• 负责人: Clarice Weinberg
• 金额: $ 39.41万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH SCIENCES
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 至
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8148994
• 关键词: Epidemiology; Statistical Methods

This project develops new statistical methods for epidemiology with broad applications and also methods as needed for ongoing projects in epidemiology, particularly those related to reproductive studies. The work this year involved several projects. (1) One project concerned using the bivariate birth weight and gestational length data for US births to estimate and correct for measurement errors in use of last menstrual period for estimating gestational length. Our goal is ultimately to develop improved standards for birth weights and variances for each completed week of gestation and also to correct the estimated rates of preterm birth within ethnic and maternal age categories. We also hope to improve the assessment of the relationship between birth weight, gestational length and risk of perinatal mortality within those categories. (2) Another project concerns pooled assessment of expensive-to-assay biomarkers based on human samples. Earlier work had shown that in a case-control setting one can pool together specimens from sets of cases and sets of controls and carry out a set-based analysis. With a slightly modified logistic model that analysis can estimate the individual-level risk parameters and loses almost no power compared to analysis based on individual assays. This means that if an exposure is based on an expensive assay that uses human samples, one can markedly improve efficiency by pooling specimens prior to assay. In recent work, we have extended these methods to apply to a fine-matched case-control design and also to time-to-pregnancy data. With the latter design, one pools specimens within strata defined by the time to conception. Again the power suffers almost not at all, compared to individual level assays, and the costs are greatly reduced. Another great benefit to pooling in general is in its conservative use of irreplaceable human specimens. For example, pooling specimens in sets of 3 reduces the amount needed from each specimen by 2/3. (3) A third project developed improved methods for assessing the accuracy of prediction of future events based on longitudinal measures of a biomarker in relation to false positive and false negative predictions. A paper based on methods for design and analysis of pooled exposure assessments in fine-matched case-control studies is currently undergoing review, and one that proposes and evaluates the use of pooling in time-to-pregnancy studies of fertility effects of environmental factors is soon to be submitted. A paper based on improving birth weight standards for specific gestational ages is currently in preparation. A paper based on assessing prediction in a longitudinal study involving a biomarker was published in Biometrics and another in this area is undergoing review.

该项目开发了具有广泛应用的流行病学新统计方法，以及正在进行的流行病学项目所需的方法，特别是与生殖研究相关的项目。 今年的工作涉及多个项目。 (1) 一个项目涉及使用美国出生的双变量出生体重和孕周数据来估计和纠正使用末次月经来估计孕周的测量误差。 我们的最终目标是制定改进的出生体重标准和每个完整妊娠周的差异，并纠正种族和母亲年龄类别内的估计早产率。 我们还希望改进对这些类别中出生体重、妊娠长度和围产期死亡风险之间关系的评估。 (2) 另一个项目涉及基于人类样本的昂贵检测生物标志物的汇总评估。早期的工作表明，在病例对照环境中，人们可以将病例组和对照组中的样本汇集在一起​​，并进行基于组的分析。 通过稍微修改的逻辑模型，该分析可以估计个体水平的风险参数，并且与基于个体分析的分析相比几乎没有损失任何功效。 这意味着，如果暴露是基于使用人体样本的昂贵检测，则可以通过在检测前汇集样本来显着提高效率。在最近的工作中，我们扩展了这些方法，以应用于精细匹配的病例对照设计以及怀孕时间数据。 对于后一种设计，人们将标本集中在由受孕时间定义的层中。 同样，与单独水平的检测相比，功率几乎不会受到任何影响，并且成本也大大降低。一般来说，汇集的另一个巨大好处是它保守地使用不可替代的人类标本。例如，将标本分成 3 个一组，可将每个标本所需的量减少 2/3。 (3) 第三个项目开发了改进的方法，用于根据与假阳性和假阴性预测相关的生物标志物的纵向测量来评估未来事件预测的准确性。 一篇基于精细匹配病例对照研究中汇总暴露评估的设计和分析方法的论文目前正在接受审查，一篇建议和评估在环境因素的生育影响的妊娠时间研究中使用汇总的论文即将提交。目前正在准备一篇关于提高特定胎龄出生体重标准的论文。 一篇基于涉及生物标志物的纵向研究评估预测的论文发表在《生物识别》杂志上，该领域的另一篇论文正在接受审查。