From Mechanism to Population: Modeling HPV-related Oropharyngeal Carcinogenesis

描述（由申请人提供）：虽然宫颈癌和其他生殖器癌主要由人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）感染引起，但最近的研究表明HPV也与头颈部（HN）癌有关。在美国，14至69岁的男性和女性口腔HPV感染的患病率约为7%，然而，90%的密歇根大学（UM）口咽鳞状细胞癌（OPSC）患者携带高危HPV。事实上，HPV相关OPSC的发病率正在增加，OPSC已成为美国最常见的HPV相关癌症。HPV已被证明会破坏口咽鳞状细胞系中的几个关键癌症途径，包括p53和Rb，但关于口腔HPV传播流行病学，感染和持续性，HPV HN致癌机制以及持续的口腔HPV流行与OPSC发病率上升之间的联系，仍存在许多悬而未决的问题。该提案的总体目标是了解HPV感染对口咽癌发生的调控途径的机制影响，以及这些影响如何反过来塑造观察到的OPSC的年龄特异性发病率和死亡率。这个问题本质上是多尺度的，因为人群水平的HPV传播驱动细胞内癌症调控途径的动态、持续变化，这反过来又驱动了癌症发病率和死亡率的人群水平趋势。因此，理解OPSC发病率的上升需要通过HPV之间的机械相互作用将感染性疾病的人群水平过程和人群水平癌症发病率联系在一起。 和致癌作用。为了实现这一目标，我们将开发受HPV影响的主要增殖调控网络的系统生物学模型，并评估HPV感染、整合和替代转录物对HPV阳性肿瘤细胞增殖动力学的影响。我们将把这些机制性感染和癌症模型整合到致癌作用的多阶段模型中，以评估HPV感染对人群水平年龄特异性OPSC发病率和死亡率的影响。我们将使用这些综合的多尺度癌症模型与人群水平的口腔HPV传播模型相结合，预测当前HPV流行趋势对未来OPSC发病率的影响，以及疫苗接种和其他预防策略的潜在影响。我们的系统模型将基于使用机械感染和癌症数据的多尺度推理。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): While cervical and other genital cancers are primarily caused by Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) infections, recent studies have demonstrated that HPV is also associated with head and neck (HN) cancers. The prevalence of oral HPV infection among men and women aged 14 to 69 years in the US is about 7%, however, 90% of University of Michigan (UM) oropharyngeal squamous cancer (OPSC) patients carry high-risk HPV. Indeed, the incidence of HPV- associated OPSCs is increasing and OPSC has become the most common HPV-related cancer in the US. HPV has been shown to disrupt several key cancer pathways in oropharyngeal squamous cell lines, including p53 and Rb, but many open questions remain regarding oral HPV transmission epidemiology, infection and persistence, the mechanisms of HPV HN carcinogenesis, and the connection between the ongoing oral HPV epidemic and the rising OPSC incidence. The overarching goal of this proposal is to understand the mechanistic effects of HPV infection on the regulatory pathways of oropharyngeal carcinogenesis, and how these effects in turn shape the observed age-specific incidence and mortality of OPSCs. This problem is inherently multi-scale, as population level HPV transmission drives dynamic, ongoing changes to intracellular cancer regulatory pathways, which in turn drives population-level trends in cancer incidence and mortality. Thus, understanding the rising incidence in OPSC necessitates tying together both the population level processes of infectious disease and the population-level cancer incidence through the mechanistic interactions between HPV and carcinogenesis. Toward this goal, we will develop systems biology models of the main proliferation regulatory networks affected by HPV, and assess the consequences of HPV infection, integration and alternate transcripts on the dynamics of HPV-positive tumor cell proliferation. We will integrate these mechanistic infection and cancer models into multistage models of carcinogenesis to gauge the impacts of HPV infection on the population-level age-specific incidence and mortality of OPSC. We will use these integrated multiscale cancer models in combination with population-level oral HPV transmission models to predict the effects of current HPV prevalence trends on future rates of OPSCs and the potential impact of vaccination and other prevention strategies. Our systems models will be based on multiscale inference using mechanistic infection and cancer data.