Global hydrological modeling to analyze the effects of climate, land use & socioeconomic change on the world's water resources

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Among the most critical consequences of climate and global change are alterations in the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources. Mitigation and adaptation strategies are needed to prepare both society and the environment for potentially diminishing water supplies, increasingly erratic river flows, or more frequent extreme events such as floods and droughts. These strategies, in turn, require scenarios and modeling approaches which have emerged as key scientific tools to estimate future hydrologic conditions.The proposed research project will focus on developing an integrated approach to analyze possible impacts of global change (i.e. climate, land use, and socioeconomic change) on a variety of aspects of water resources and hydrology. A state-of-the-art modeling framework will be established at McGill University to simulate present and future hydrological conditions over large regions (including full global coverage). Modeling results are aimed to exceed existing spatial and temporal resolutions, either by applying refined modeling concepts or downscaling techniques. After validating, adapting and enhancing the modeling framework, it will be applied to address key scientific and policy relevant questions such as: How will climate, land use and socioeconomic changes affect regional and global water availability and demand? What is the feedback of these alterations to climate change? Will water stress and scarcity increase in the future? How will the potential to generate hydropower change? Where will the risk of floods and droughts increase? How much water has to be reserved for environmental flow requirements? What critical alterations in the natural hydrological regime will occur? How can we assess the value of environmental services provided by watersheds at large scales?The results of this interdisciplinary project can provide valuable input (and a framework for comparisons) to promote our understanding of large-scale hydrology and regional water resources. In particular, the findings can be used to inform the development of other models, such as the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.