Modeling the evolutionary and epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases

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The proposed research program concentrates on modeling the evolutionary and epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases, with an emphasis on influenza. Influenza is a major cause of human morbidity and mortality. Influenza viruses undergo rapid mutations to evade human immune system. Drastic genetic changes occur from time to time. Influenza pandemics (e.g. in 1918, 1957 and 1968) were caused by these drastic changes. Hence, both influenza pandemic planning and inter-pandemic control have become important public health concerns.This proposed research aims to estimate important influenza epidemic parameters such as transmission rates, understand the mortality patterns and estimate the influenza mortality burden, estimate the effectiveness of vaccination and antiviral drug usage, understand the interaction between the epidemic process and the evolutionary process. The long-term objective is to develop a mathematically tractable model that can explain the influenza evolutionary and epidemic patterns. These are fundamental questions closely related to the control of pandemic and nonpandemic influenza. The techniques involve compiling pneumonia and influenza related hospital visitation data and influenza serological surveillance data,  fitting the pneumonia and influenza mortality curves to mechanistic models that govern the epidemics, agent-base simulations, and developing new models that combines the epidemic and evolutionary processes.While this research is motivated primarily by influenza, it will lead to models suitable for studying control strategies for any fast-evolving pathogens. I will apply the techniques to other infectious diseases, such as HIV/AIDS.