Water sustainability under climate change and increasing demand: a one water approach at a watershed scale

在本世纪初期，水将成为加拿大最严重的生态危机（Schindler 2001）。为解决水的可持续性问题，一再建议采用基于流域的水管理办法。然而，这种办法很少得到充分执行。充分了解水资源总量（气候、地表水、浅层和深层地下水等）它们在流域尺度上的相互作用是一个主要障碍。我们建议采取一个水的角度来评估流域的可持续性，气候变化和增加的社会经济驱动力的水需求（农业和人口）在深溪流域（306平方公里）位于奥肯那根盆地的半干旱南部内陆的不列颠哥伦比亚省。适宜的流域规模和用水者之间的重大用水冲突使该流域成为这一跨学科研究的理想场所。 地球化学和综合流域建模（MIKE SHE或其他）相结合，将用于量化水资源总量、地表水-地下水联系和流域对各种水压力的反应。加拿大陆地表面计划（CLASS）模型将被用来改善估计的空间变化的地下水补给模型校准。此外，未来农业用水需求将使用环境和经济驱动因素（产品价格、气候、水定价政策和用水法规的变化）进行预测，而不是基于简单的趋势预测。这项研究是新颖的，在流域尺度上的水资源利用的物理和人类层面的定量整合，使适应性管理应对气候变化和增加需求的影响。

Water will become Canada's foremost ecological crisis early in this century (Schindler 2001). A watershed based approach for water management is repeatedly suggested to address water sustainability issues. However, full implementation of such an approach is seldom realized. Achieving a full understanding of total water resources (climate, surface water, shallow and deep groundwater etc.) and their interactions at a watershed scale is a major barrier. We propose to take a one-water perspective to evaluate watershed sustainability under climate change and increasing socio-economic drivers of water demands (agriculture and population) in the Deep Creek watershed (306 km2) located in the Okanagan basin of the semi-arid southern interior of British Columbia. The suitable watershed size and significant water conflicts among water users make this watershedan ideal place for this interdisciplinary research.  A combination of geo-chemistry and integrated watershed modelling (MIKE SHE or others) will be used to quantify the total water resource, surface water - groundwater connections and the watershed response to various water stressors. A Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) model will be used to improve estimationof spatially varied groundwater recharge for model calibration. In addition, future agriculture water demands will be projected using both environmental and economic drivers (changes in product prices, climate, water pricing policies, and water use regulations) rather than based on simpler trend projections. This study is novel in its quantitative integration of the physical and human dimensions of water use at a watershed scale, enabling adaptive management responses to climate change and increasing demand impacts.