Risk and Determinants of Fatal and Non-Fatal Coronary Heart Disease in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

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Heart disease is the leading cause of death and ill-health in Australia. Accordingly, it also imposes a significant cost burden to the community. The key to effective prevention is understanding of the roles of risk factors in the development of heart disease. These are best defined through the use of large cohort studies, which are those that follow up a group of individuals over time. Statistical analyses are used to develop prediction equations to quantify the effects of multiple risk factors in terms of their contributions to risk of heart disease. The current heart disease prediction equations most commonly used in Australia are based on older overseas studies, such as the Framingham Heart Study. Other than having low relevance to the current Australian population, they incorporate only a limited range of traditional risk factors. A spectrum of new risk factors is emerging. This study aims to develop risk prediction equations for heart disease that are applicable to the current Australian population, using contemporary data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Results from this study will allow the future onset of heart disease to be predicted with accuracy and confidence, which in turn will allow preventive strategies, including expensive drugs, to be utilised in a more effective manner. Ultimately, the results will lead to a more efficient allocation of limited healthcare resources in Australia.