Seed transfers of boreal conifers in an uncertain future climate

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

This research proposal is directed i. at investigating the ability of two different climate correlative approaches that spatially model species' future distributions at the population level under a changing climate, and thus ii. at providing the Forestry Sector with the knowledge and methods to make successful transfers of key populations of their most economically important species. Also, iii. this research will provide direction to the overarching conservation goal of forestry: i.e. preserving the adaptive potential (biodiversity) of our key forest species. Population level data that I have collected from range-wide provenance tests and from my own regional common garden trials, together with the methodologies that I have developed over the past 20 years, will be used to achieve these goals. Population suitability models and response functions will be used as predictive models, and validation will be attempted by i. comparing results of the two approaches and ii. retrodiction (predicting the past) by each method.