Paleoclimatological assessment of the central Northwest Territories: implications for the long-term viability of the Tibbett to Contwoyto winter ice road

西北地区中部的古气候评估：对蒂贝特至康特沃伊托冬季冰路长期可行性的影响

• 批准号: 381471-2009
• 负责人: Patterson, Tim
• 金额: $ 15.38万
• 依托单位: Carleton University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Strategic Projects - Group
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2009-01-01 至 2010-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=438811
• 关键词: Paleoclimatological; assessment; central; Northwest; Territories

The proposed research falls within the Strategic Project Grants target area of Healthy Environment and Ecosystems (Ecosystem Adaptation, Interventions and Modeling). We will provide a detailed assessment of the impact of climate change, as archived in Late Holocene (last ~3500 years) lake sediments, and tree ring records spanning the last 200 years, to provide information valuable for current and future management of the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR). The TCWR is the world's longest heavy haul ice road (586 km) extending from Yellowknife, NT into southern NU. The TCWR is critical to the economy of the NT with more than $500 million per year in goods passing north to service mines along the route. As 87% of the TCWR is built over lakes, any change in ice stability, thickness, and duration of cover associated with climate variability impacts use of the road. For example, the unusually mild and stormy El Niño influenced, winter of 2006 shortened winter road operations to 26 days below average, resulting in only 6,841 loads going north. As a consequence there were substantial industry losses (e.g. mothballing of the Tahera Diamond Jericho Diamond Project has been linked to the prohibitive cost of flying in fuel). With a projected growth in truck traffic to 14,000 loads north by 2013 it is critical that policy makers, planners, and mine developers have reasonable data upon which to base economic forecasts, as alternate transportation costs (e.g. air transport) are prohibitively high. In our multi-disciplinary research on a series of cores collected along the length of the TCWR we will provide high-resolution information on climate variability and its affects on aquatic and terrestrial environments in the central NT. Our methodology will permit us to recognize cycles and trends that have impacted climate change. Through use of time series analyses we will predict possible future trends in climate and ice cover. This information may be used by stakeholders (e.g., industry, government, non-government organizations, and First Nations groups) to strategically manage northern ecosystems and to inform policy makers and planners of potential climate conditions that may prevail in the coming decades.

拟议的研究属于健康环境和生态系统战略项目拨款目标领域（生态系统适应、干预和建模）。 我们将对全新世晚期（最近约 3500 年）湖泊沉积物中存档的气候变化影响以及过去 200 年的树木年轮记录进行详细评估，为蒂比特至康特沃伊托冬季公路 (TCWR) 当前和未来的管理提供有价值的信息。 TCWR 是世界上最长的重载冰路（586 公里），从北领地黄刀镇一直延伸到北卡罗来纳州南部。 TCWR 对北领地的经济至关重要，每年有超过 5 亿美元的货物向北传送，为沿线矿山提供服务。由于 TCWR 的 87% 建在湖泊上，因此与气候变化相关的冰稳定性、厚度和覆盖持续时间的任何变化都会影响道路的使用。例如，受异常温和和暴风雨的厄尔尼诺现象影响，2006 年冬季将冬季道路运营时间缩短至比平均水平低 26 天，导致北上的货物只有 6,841 辆。结果造成了巨大的行业损失（例如，塔赫拉钻石杰里科钻石项目的封存与高昂的燃油飞行成本有关）。预计到 2013 年北方卡车运输量将增长至 14,000 辆，因此政策制定者、规划者和矿山开发商拥有合理的数据作为经济预测的基础至关重要，因为替代运输成本（例如航空运输）过高。 在我们对沿 TCWR 沿线收集的一系列岩心进行的多学科研究中，我们将提供有关气候变化及其对北领地中部水生和陆地环境影响的高分辨率信息。我们的方法将使我们能够识别影响气候变化的周期和趋势。 通过使用时间序列分析，我们将预测气候和冰盖未来可能的趋势。 利益相关者（例如行业、政府、非政府组织和原住民团体）可以使用这些信息来战略性地管理北部生态系统，并向政策制定者和规划者通报未来几十年可能盛行的潜在气候条件。