Paleoclimatological assessment of the central Northwest Territories: implications for the long-term viability of the Tibbett to Contwoyto winter ice road

拟议的研究属于战略项目赠款健康环境和生态系统目标领域（生态系统适应、干预和建模）。本文将利用全新世晚期（近3500年）湖泊沉积物和近200年树木年轮记录对气候变化的影响进行详细评估，为Tibbitt至Contwoyto冬季公路（twr）的当前和未来管理提供有价值的信息。TCWR是世界上最长的重载冰路（586公里），从北部的耶洛奈夫延伸到北方南部。TCWR对北部地区的经济至关重要，每年有超过5亿美元的货物向北运往沿线的矿山。由于87%的twr建在湖泊之上，任何与气候变化相关的冰稳定性、厚度和覆盖时间的变化都会影响道路的使用。例如，受异常温和的厄尔尼诺Niño风暴的影响，2006年冬季将冬季道路运营缩短至比平均水平低26天，导致只有6,841辆车向北行驶。结果造成了重大的工业损失（例如，塔赫拉钻石杰里科钻石项目的封存与燃料飞行费用过高有关）。预计到2013年，北方的卡车运输量将增长到14000辆，决策者、规划者和矿山开发商有合理的数据作为经济预测的基础是至关重要的，因为替代运输成本（如航空运输）过高。在我们对沿着twr长度收集的一系列岩心进行的多学科研究中，我们将提供关于气候变率及其对北部中部水生和陆地环境影响的高分辨率信息。我们的方法将使我们能够识别影响气候变化的周期和趋势。通过使用时间序列分析，我们将预测气候和冰盖未来可能的趋势。这些信息可被利益相关者（如工业、政府、非政府组织和原住民团体）用于战略性地管理北方生态系统，并告知决策者和规划者未来几十年可能普遍存在的潜在气候条件。

The proposed research falls within the Strategic Project Grants target area of Healthy Environment and Ecosystems (Ecosystem Adaptation, Interventions and Modeling). We will provide a detailed assessment of the impact of climate change, as archived in Late Holocene (last ~3500 years) lake sediments, and tree ring records spanning the last 200 years, to provide information valuable for current and future management of the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR). The TCWR is the world's longest heavy haul ice road (586 km) extending from Yellowknife, NT into southern NU. The TCWR is critical to the economy of the NT with more than $500 million per year in goods passing north to service mines along the route. As 87% of the TCWR is built over lakes, any change in ice stability, thickness, and duration of cover associated with climate variability impacts use of the road. For example, the unusually mild and stormy El Niño influenced, winter of 2006 shortened winter road operations to 26 days below average, resulting in only 6,841 loads going north. As a consequence there were substantial industry losses (e.g. mothballing of the Tahera Diamond Jericho Diamond Project has been linked to the prohibitive cost of flying in fuel). With a projected growth in truck traffic to 14,000 loads north by 2013 it is critical that policy makers, planners, and mine developers have reasonable data upon which to base economic forecasts, as alternate transportation costs (e.g. air transport) are prohibitively high. In our multi-disciplinary research on a series of cores collected along the length of the TCWR we will provide high-resolution information on climate variability and its affects on aquatic and terrestrial environments in the central NT. Our methodology will permit us to recognize cycles and trends that have impacted climate change. Through use of time series analyses we will predict possible future trends in climate and ice cover. This information may be used by stakeholders (e.g., industry, government, non-government organizations, and First Nations groups) to strategically manage northern ecosystems and to inform policy makers and planners of potential climate conditions that may prevail in the coming decades.