Paleoclimatological assessment of the central Northwest Territories: implications for the long-term viability of the Tibbett to Contwoyto winter ice road

拟议的研究福尔斯属于战略项目赠款的健康环境和生态系统（生态系统适应，干预和建模）的目标领域。 我们将提供对气候变化影响的详细评估，如全新世晚期（过去~3500年）湖泊沉积物中存档的那样，以及过去200年的树木年轮记录，为蒂比特至Contwoyto Winter Road（TCWR）的当前和未来管理提供有价值的信息。TCWR是世界上最长的重载冰路（586公里），从NT的耶洛奈夫延伸到NU南部。 TCWR对NT的经济至关重要，每年有超过5亿美元的货物通过北部，为沿着的矿山提供服务。由于87%的TCWR建在湖泊上，与气候变化相关的冰稳定性、厚度和覆盖时间的任何变化都会影响道路的使用。例如，受异常温和和多风暴的厄尔尼诺影响，2006年冬季将冬季公路运营时间缩短到低于平均水平的26天，导致只有6 841辆车运往北方。因此，该行业遭受了重大损失（例如，Tahera Diamond Jericho钻石项目的封存与高昂的飞行燃料费用有关）。到2013年，北方的卡车运输量预计将增长到14，000辆，因此决策者、规划者和矿山开发商必须掌握合理的数据，以进行经济预测，因为替代运输成本（如空运）高得令人望而却步。 在我们的多学科研究中，我们将提供高分辨率的气候变化及其对新界中部水生和陆地环境的影响的信息，这些核心收集沿着TCWR的长度。我们的方法将使我们能够认识到影响气候变化的周期和趋势。 通过使用时间序列分析，我们将预测未来气候和冰盖的可能趋势。 这些信息可能被利益相关者使用（例如，（c）通过与土著人民（包括工业界、政府、非政府组织和原住民团体）的合作，对北方生态系统进行战略性管理，并向决策者和规划者通报未来几十年可能出现的潜在气候状况。

The proposed research falls within the Strategic Project Grants target area of Healthy Environment and Ecosystems (Ecosystem Adaptation, Interventions and Modeling). We will provide a detailed assessment of the impact of climate change, as archived in Late Holocene (last ~3500 years) lake sediments, and tree ring records spanning the last 200 years, to provide information valuable for current and future management of the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR). The TCWR is the world's longest heavy haul ice road (586 km) extending from Yellowknife, NT into southern NU. The TCWR is critical to the economy of the NT with more than $500 million per year in goods passing north to service mines along the route. As 87% of the TCWR is built over lakes, any change in ice stability, thickness, and duration of cover associated with climate variability impacts use of the road. For example, the unusually mild and stormy El Niño influenced, winter of 2006 shortened winter road operations to 26 days below average, resulting in only 6,841 loads going north. As a consequence there were substantial industry losses (e.g. mothballing of the Tahera Diamond Jericho Diamond Project has been linked to the prohibitive cost of flying in fuel). With a projected growth in truck traffic to 14,000 loads north by 2013 it is critical that policy makers, planners, and mine developers have reasonable data upon which to base economic forecasts, as alternate transportation costs (e.g. air transport) are prohibitively high. In our multi-disciplinary research on a series of cores collected along the length of the TCWR we will provide high-resolution information on climate variability and its affects on aquatic and terrestrial environments in the central NT. Our methodology will permit us to recognize cycles and trends that have impacted climate change. Through use of time series analyses we will predict possible future trends in climate and ice cover. This information may be used by stakeholders (e.g., industry, government, non-government organizations, and First Nations groups) to strategically manage northern ecosystems and to inform policy makers and planners of potential climate conditions that may prevail in the coming decades.