Toward risk-informed infrastructure engineering: development of risk-informed in-service inspection methodology

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Risk-informed infrastructure engineering is a newly emerging engineering discipline that attempts to provide a holistic and life-cycle solution to the "crumbling infrastructure". The proposed research program aims at developing an advanced risk-informed in-service inspection (RI-ISI) methodology for a nuclear power plant (NPP), a key physical infrastructure system that safety is so important an issue. The advanced RI-ISI methodology integrates risk insights from probabilistic risk analysis with service experience, operating conditions, and other deterministic information to optimize inspection decisions. The proposed research will focus on the following three key and interdependent issues: stochastic degradation modeling, life prediction and reliability analysis, and inspection and maintenance optimization for aging management of NPP components. The stochastic degradation modeling provides reliable degradation model for time-dependent reliability analysis and life prediction, which in turn guides the selection of optimal inspection locations and maintenance strategy. Meanwhile, the well-designed inspection program will provide high-quality degradation data for the degradation modeling. Using stochastic process theory and modern statistical methods, the proposed research will provide a solid theoretical basis for RI-ISI programs of NPP. The novelty of the research is that it provides a thorough treatment of all uncertainties associated with the degradation and integrates it into the reliability analysis and the inspection decision-making. The proposed RI-ISI methodology will enable Canadian utilities to develop more efficient and economical ISI programs that improve the reliability and operational safety of the nuclear power plants. The major findings can also readily be transferred to life-cycle management of other infrastructure systems such as roads, rails, bridges, public transits, and water and wastewater systems.