FORWARD III: Modelling to contribute to cumulative effects management in the Canadian Boreal Forest

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We propose to directly link watershed-based research to the petroleum and forestry industries operating in the Canadian Boreal Forest. We will quantify and model the impacts of landscape-scale disturbances and recovery trajectories through reclamation of soils, vegetation, streams and bioindicators. We will test the hypothesis that recovery trajectories for these watershed variables at oil sands sites parallel those seen for burned and experimentally harvested watersheds monitored during the Synergy Award winning FORWARD program, which developed a long-term database for 29 reference and disturbed Boreal Plain and Boreal Shield watersheds. The design, including 15 of these long term watersheds, consists of reference and disturbance sites and oil sands reclamation treatments. Hydrologic and water quality modeling will complete and extend the models developed in FORWARD to include prediction of organic chemical loading into the Lower Athabasca River system from reclaimed and harvested watersheds, as well as from pulp mills. Definition of this primary loading source will provide an opportunity to model the transport, fate and thus cumulative downstream impact of organic contaminants, and to determined their toxicity to aquatic invertebrates, fish and amphibians. The hydrologic and water quality modeling tools will be essential to sustainable management of human disturbance and reclamation outcomes in Alberta and throughout Canada, where various intensities of resource extraction alter contaminant loading and exposure for fish, wildlife and downstream water users. Collaborative impact and reclamation research and cooperation between industrial participants in the natural resource sector will enhance cumulative effects assessment and facilitate successful recovery of watershed functions and biotic resources. This research targets a number of outcomes impacting industrial application, planning and regulation and will provide the high quality personnel required to meet the challenges of these industries.