Analysis and modelling of climate-land cover interactions with a carbon cycle perspective

从碳循环角度分析气候-土地覆盖相互作用并建模

• 批准号: 386499-2010
• 负责人: Montenegro, Alvaro
• 金额: $ 1.97万
• 依托单位: St. Francis Xavier University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2012-01-01 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=507694
• 关键词: Analysis; modelling; climate; land; cover

Interactions between climate and the carbon cycle have long been recognized as important in determining the Planet's climate state. These complex interactions involve exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean, bottom sediments, land surface and biota and are fundamental, by setting the atmospheric concentration of CO2, in the determination of the Planet's radiative budget. Through its connection to the biosphere, the carbon cycle also has a significant impact on other parameters relevant to climate such as albedo, surface roughness and evapotranspiration. All these interactions play an important role on the climate response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and it is clear that the detailed and reliable predictions required by society in the face of future climate change must be based on a solid understanding of these climate-carbon cycle connections. Moreover, this understanding must be incorporated into the global and regional models being used to generate these predictions. The recent advent of numerical coupled global climate-carbon cycle models constitutes a significant advancement for the field. Crucial to the predictive skills of such models is their ability to account for vegetation dynamics which, by influencing fluxes of mass and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere, play an important role in climate over a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. This research proposal is aimed, in the long-term, at enhancing our understanding of the interaction between vegetation dynamics and climate through the application and development of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. Its short-term goals are: i) To increase the predictive skills of current models through the development of a parameterization for insect impact on mid- to high-latitude forests - a process that, although being of great importance to the carbon budget of these ecosystems, is presently absent from global models; and ii) To quantify, through a unprecedentedly large number of numerical simulations, the response of vegetation cover to climate change and iii) To quantify the climatic effects of human-induced vegetation cover change, including work to generate a, presently inexistent, realistic representation of afforestation in a Global Circulation Model.

长期以来，气候和碳循环之间的相互作用一直被认为是决定地球气候状态的重要因素。这些复杂的相互作用涉及大气、海洋、海底沉积物、陆地表面和生物群之间的交换，通过设定大气中的二氧化碳浓度，在确定地球的辐射收支方面是基本的。通过与生物圈的联系，碳循环还对与气候有关的其他参数产生重大影响，如反照率、地表粗糙度和蒸散。所有这些相互作用在应对人为二氧化碳排放的气候方面发挥着重要作用，显然，社会在面对未来气候变化时所要求的详细和可靠的预测必须建立在对这些气候-碳循环联系的坚实理解的基础上。此外，必须将这一理解纳入用于产生这些预测的全球和区域模型。最近出现的全球气候-碳循环数值耦合模式是该领域的一项重大进步。这类模型预测技能的关键是它们解释植被动态的能力，植被动态通过影响陆地表面和大气之间的质量和能量通量，在广泛的时间和空间尺度上对气候发挥重要作用。从长远来看，这项研究的目的是通过气候-碳循环耦合模型的应用和发展，加强我们对植被动态和气候之间相互作用的理解。其短期目标是：(1)通过开发昆虫对中高纬度森林的影响的参数化来提高现有模型的预测技能--这一过程虽然对这些生态系统的碳收支非常重要，但目前没有出现在全球模式中；(2)通过史无前例的大量数值模拟，量化植被覆盖对气候变化的反应；(3)量化人类造成的植被覆盖变化的气候影响，包括在全球环流模式中生成目前尚不存在的植树造林的真实表示。