Development of a New Framework for Watershed Systems Analysis and Modelling under Climate and Environmental Changes

气候和环境变化下流域系统分析和建模新框架的开发

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-05130
• 负责人: Razavi, SeyedSaman
• 金额: $ 2.11万
• 依托单位: University of Saskatchewan
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=663088
• 关键词: Development; New; Framework; Watershed; Systems

Flow regime in Canadian river basins is changing as a result of changes in climate (e.g., climate warming) and the environment (e.g, land and water management). These changes are manifested by more extreme events such as floods and droughts. Reliable assessment of future water availability, therefore, requires understanding and modelling the dynamics of watershed systems under these sustained changes. However, even the most rigorous hydrologic models provide little help, as they heavily rely on the assumption of ‘stationarity', which indicates that natural systems fluctuate within a constant envelope of variability through time. As a result, prediction of future changes in water availability in Canada and elsewhere is fraught with uncertainty.******The long-term goal of my research is to develop a new framework for watershed systems analysis and modelling that accounts for non-stationarity. The focus of my work is on understanding how different natural and man-made components of a system function and interact at different time and space scales. The proposed work is conducted within two inter-related work packages that bring together state-of-the-art hydrologic sciences and system-theoretic approaches to enable substantive progress in understanding, modelling, and prediction of changing watershed systems in Canada. The intended outcomes have a key value to Canadian economy and wellbeing by reducing uncertainty in projections of future water availability, leading to improved management of water resources and adaption to the impact of natural hazards such as floods and droughts.********

由于气候(如气候变暖)和环境(如土地和水管理)的变化，加拿大河流流域的水流状况正在发生变化。这些变化表现为更极端的事件，如洪水和干旱。因此，对未来可用水的可靠评估需要了解和模拟这些持续变化下的流域系统的动态。然而，即使是最严格的水文模型也提供不了什么帮助，因为它们严重依赖“平稳性”假设，这表明自然系统在随时间变化的恒定范围内波动。因此，对加拿大和其他地区未来水资源可获得性变化的预测充满了不确定性。我研究的长期目标是开发一个新的框架，用于流域系统分析和建模，并考虑到非平稳性。我的工作重点是了解系统中不同的自然和人造组件如何在不同的时间和空间尺度上发挥作用和相互作用。拟议的工作是在两个相互关联的工作包内进行的，这两个工作包汇集了最先进的水文科学和系统理论方法，以使加拿大在理解、建模和预测不断变化的分水岭系统方面能够取得实质性进展。预期成果对加拿大经济和福祉具有关键价值，因为它减少了未来可用水预测的不确定性，导致改善了水资源管理，并适应了洪水和干旱等自然灾害的影响。