Development of a New Framework for Watershed Systems Analysis and Modelling under Climate and Environmental Changes

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Flow regime in Canadian river basins is changing as a result of changes in climate (e.g., climate warming) and the environment (e.g, land and water management). These changes are manifested by more extreme events such as floods and droughts. Reliable assessment of future water availability, therefore, requires understanding and modelling the dynamics of watershed systems under these sustained changes. However, even the most rigorous hydrologic models provide little help, as they heavily rely on the assumption of ‘stationarity', which indicates that natural systems fluctuate within a constant envelope of variability through time. As a result, prediction of future changes in water availability in Canada and elsewhere is fraught with uncertainty.******The long-term goal of my research is to develop a new framework for watershed systems analysis and modelling that accounts for non-stationarity. The focus of my work is on understanding how different natural and man-made components of a system function and interact at different time and space scales. The proposed work is conducted within two inter-related work packages that bring together state-of-the-art hydrologic sciences and system-theoretic approaches to enable substantive progress in understanding, modelling, and prediction of changing watershed systems in Canada. The intended outcomes have a key value to Canadian economy and wellbeing by reducing uncertainty in projections of future water availability, leading to improved management of water resources and adaption to the impact of natural hazards such as floods and droughts.********