Multireservoir system optimization using ensemble forecasts

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Future water management will shift from building new infrastructure to better managing existing ones. In a river basin, fresh water supplies are physically limited, and new infrastructure like dams are much more expensive than they have been in the past. This project is concerned with the use of ensemble streamflow forecasts to improve the performance of multiple reservoirs. The reservoir operation problem requires the evaluation of tradeoffs among immediate and future uses of water. The variability of natural streamflow complicates this decision-making problem since the tradeoff must be found before the volume of future supply becomes known. The availability of frequently-updated ensemble streamflow forecasts offers the potential to improve the operational effectiveness of multiple reservoir systems if there are policies and computational tools available to exploit them. This project aims at (1) developing such a computational tool by incorporating ensemble streamflow forecasts into a reservoir optimization model, and (2) assessing the economic value of these forecasts. To achieve this, the project will require the training of highly qualified personnel (1 PhD and 3 MSc students), and will be carried out in the Gatineau River basin in Quebec.