Multireservoir system optimization using ensemble forecasts

使用集合预测的多储层系统优化

• 批准号: 402190-2012
• 负责人: Tilmant, Amaury
• 金额: $ 1.38万
• 依托单位: Université Laval
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=596056
• 关键词: Multireservoir; system; optimization; using; ensemble

Future water management will shift from building new infrastructure to better managing existing ones. In a river basin, fresh water supplies are physically limited, and new infrastructure like dams are much more expensive than they have been in the past. This project is concerned with the use of ensemble streamflow forecasts to improve the performance of multiple reservoirs. The reservoir operation problem requires the evaluation of tradeoffs among immediate and future uses of water. The variability of natural streamflow complicates this decision-making problem since the tradeoff must be found before the volume of future supply becomes known. The availability of frequently-updated ensemble streamflow forecasts offers the potential to improve the operational effectiveness of multiple reservoir systems if there are policies and computational tools available to exploit them. This project aims at (1) developing such a computational tool by incorporating ensemble streamflow forecasts into a reservoir optimization model, and (2) assessing the economic value of these forecasts. To achieve this, the project will require the training of highly qualified personnel (1 PhD and 3 MSc students), and will be carried out in the Gatineau River basin in Quebec.

未来的水资源管理将从建设新的基础设施转向更好地管理现有基础设施。在河流流域，淡水供应是有限的，而像水坝这样的新基础设施比过去要昂贵得多。该项目关注的是集合径流预报的使用，以提高多水库的性能。水库调度问题要求对当前和未来的用水进行权衡评估。天然径流的变化使决策问题复杂化，因为必须在未来供应量已知之前找到权衡。频繁更新的集合径流预报的可用性提供了可能，以提高多水库系统的运营效率，如果有政策和计算工具可利用它们。该项目的目标是（1）通过将集合径流预测纳入水库优化模型来开发这样的计算工具，以及（2）评估这些预测的经济价值。为实现这一目标，该项目将需要培训高素质的人员（1名博士生和3名硕士生），并将在魁北克的加蒂诺河流域实施。