Toward improved forecasts of sea-ice thickness

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It is well known that the ice extent in the Arctic has been decreasing in recent years. It is much less well known how the thickness of the ice in the Arctic is changing. This is because sea ice thickness is more difficult to measure than sea ice extent from satellites. Sea ice thickness can be estimated using data from a satellite sensor that measures radiation in the infrared band. Because satellite observations contain some error, they should be combined with other sources of information when possible. In this research we will generate sea ice thickness forecasts by combining the information from the satellite sensor with that from a numerical model. The accuracy of the forecasts will be verified by comparing the results with independent observations. It is of particular interest to be able to generate forecasts of sea ice thickness that can be given to ships, to ensure safe navigation in ice-infested waters. Results from the research will be communicated to the Canadian Ice Service such that they can be applied to real problems in a timely manner.