Understanding the dynamics of predator-prey populations dispersing in heterogeneous habitat

我的研究计划的目标是将目前对捕食者-猎物系统动力学的理解扩大到在当前气候变化和栖息地碎片化增加的压力下具有高度相关性的新情况。我的关注点是空间明确的系统，其中捕食者和猎物的相互作用与在斑驳的风景中的运动相结合。资源可获得性的空间变异对种群动态有很强的影响，在当前的景观重构压力下，了解异质景观对种群动态的影响具有重要意义。当人类利益决定需要通过应用虫害管理策略或收获资源来扰乱生态系统时，居民种群就会偏离其平衡分布。然后，这些种群必须进行调整，而这些短暂的动态可以导致恢复初始平衡状态，也可以导致一种全新的状态。例如，相对稳定的昆虫群落在使用杀虫剂后可能会变得非常不稳定。在这种情况下，控制害虫的努力在最初确实减少了害虫的数量，但也清除了害虫的捕食者。因为害虫的增长速度比捕食者高得多，所以害虫种群首先恢复并可以指数级增长。在这种情况下，虫害控制的意想不到的后果是造成虫害爆炸。如果事先知道系统的行为，这种次要后果是可以预防或减轻的。

The goal of my research program is to expand current understanding of predator-prey system dynamics to novel situations of high relevance under the current pressures of climate change and increased habitat fragmentation. My focus is in spatially-explicit systems where predator-prey interactions are coupled with movement across patchy landscapes. Spatial variation in resource availability has a strong effect on population dynamics, and under current landscape reconfiguration pressures, an understanding of the effect of heterogeneous landscapes on population dynamics is highly relevant. When human interests dictate the need to disturb an ecosystem by, for example, applying pest management strategies or harvesting a resource, resident populations are displaced from their equilibrium distributions. These populations must then adjust, and these transient dynamics can lead either to a restoration of the initial equilibrium state, or to an entirely new state. For example, relatively stable insect communities can become wildly unstable after the application of insecticide. In this case, efforts to control an insect pest do initially reduce the pest population, but also remove the pest's predators. Because the pest has a much higher growth rate than its predators, the pest population recovers first and can grow exponentially. The unintended consequence of pest control, in this case, is creation of a pest explosion. Such secondary consequences can be prevented, or mitigated, with prior knowledge of system behaviour.