Sustainability-oriented Water Resources Allocation, Management, and Planning

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Hydrologists and water resources engineers deal with two types of mathematical models to address water resources issues related to planning and management. The first type is hydrological models that simulate the natural hydrological cycle to establish the rainfall-runoff relationship and answer the question of what happens to rain. The second type is water resources systems models that establish the relationship between water supply and demand and answer the question of what happens to runoff. Typically, hydrological models lack the representation of human intervention and water uses and withdrawals, whereas water resources systems models do not consider the natural hydrological processes. Such disconnection impedes the important task of evaluating how natural hydrological and meteorological changes affect the society, and thus, make any proposed adaptation strategies unrealistic. In this research a modeling framework that connects both hydrological modeling (HM) with water resources systems modeling (WRSM) is proposed. Furthermore, the WRSM will be conducted in an integrated fashion to link the water resources system and water allocation decisions for various water uses (e.g., irrigation, hydropower,...) with socioeconomic considerations, such as cost of production, food prices, and revenue generated. Environmental considerations, such as streamflow requirements to support healthy ecosystem will be also considered. The expected outcome of this proposed research program is a modeling framework that allows for Sustainability-oriented Water Allocation, Management, and Planning (SWAMP). SWAMP will be developed for the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) as an ideal case study of a river basin extending over three prairie provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba), and subject to an inter-provincial water apportionment agreement. SWAMP will allow for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The varying conditions could be natural (climate change) or due to human interventions (e.g., changes of societal perceptions of the value of water). This novel framework and concept promotes and allows for a paradigm shift from studying traditional water budgets to quantifying value-based water budgets; i.e., balance of water and water-dependent commodities and services. SWAMP includes prediction of runoff at the headwaters of the SRB, including those originating from the Rocky Mountains, and routing them through the water resources systems of various water reservoirs and channels, taking into effect various consumptive and non-consumptive water uses for economic, social, and environmental purposes. SWAMP will be an easy-to-understand, rigorous, and decision aid-oriented modeling framework that can be a tool facilitating planning through discussions and negotiations among various stakeholders. SWAMP will be capable of: (1) simulating the water resources system in the SRB under various climatic conditions; water availability scenarios; water, food, and energy pricing; and environmental requirements; (2) analyzing the interrelationships among the various hydrological, environmental, and socioeconomic factors in the SRB, and showing the opportunity value, rather than the cost, of water uses; (3) analyzing the impact of possible time-varying socioeconomic change and adaptation measures; and (4) studying the impacts of different water availability scenarios on the water allocation priorities, infrastructure upgrade decisions, and inter-provincial water apportionment in light of water “societal value”. This research will show the importance of including water as a key variable in economic development and strategic planning at the regional level.