Sustainability-oriented Water Resources Allocation, Management, and Planning

水文学家和水资源工程师处理两种类型的数学模型，以解决与规划和管理有关的水资源问题。第一类是模拟自然水文循环的水文模型，以建立降雨-径流关系并回答降雨发生了什么的问题。第二类是水资源系统模型，它建立了水的供需关系，并回答了径流问题。通常，水文模型缺乏对人为干预和用水和取水的描述，而水资源系统模型没有考虑自然的水文过程。这种脱节阻碍了评估自然水文和气象变化如何影响社会的重要任务，从而使任何拟议的适应战略都是不切实际的。 提出了一种将水文建模(HM)与水资源系统建模(WRSM)相结合的建模框架。此外，水资源需求评估将以综合方式进行，将水资源系统与各种用水(如灌溉、水电等)的水资源分配决策联系起来。考虑到社会经济因素，如生产成本、食品价格和产生的收入。还将考虑环境因素，如支持健康生态系统的径流要求。这一拟议研究计划的预期结果是一个允许面向可持续发展的水分配、管理和规划(SWAMP)的建模框架。将为萨斯喀彻温河流域(SRB)开发沼泽，作为横跨三个草原省份(艾伯塔省、萨斯喀彻温省和马尼托巴省)的河流流域的理想案例研究，并遵守省际水资源分配协议。沼泽将允许评估不同条件下相互竞争的用户的水资源可获得性和分配方案。变化的条件可能是自然的(气候变化)，也可能是人为干预(例如，社会对水的价值认识的变化)。这一新的框架和概念促进并允许从研究传统水预算到量化基于价值的水预算的范式转变；即水和依赖水的商品和服务的平衡。 沼泽包括对SRB源头的径流进行预测，包括来自落基山脉的径流，并通过各种水库和渠道的水资源系统对径流进行引导，从而实现各种用于经济、社会和环境目的的消耗性和非消耗性用水。SWAMP将是一个易于理解的、严格的、面向决策辅助的建模框架，可以成为通过各种利益相关者之间的讨论和谈判来促进规划的工具。Swamp将能够：(1)模拟不同气候条件下SRB的水资源系统；水资源可获得性情景；水、食品和能源定价；以及环境要求；(2)分析SRB中各种水文、环境和社会经济因素之间的相互关系，并显示用水的机会价值，而不是成本；(3)分析可能的时变社会经济变化和适应措施的影响；以及(4)根据水的“社会价值”，研究不同的水资源可获得性情景对水资源分配优先顺序、基础设施升级决策和省际水资源分配的影响。这项研究将显示将水作为区域一级经济发展和战略规划的一个关键变量的重要性。

Hydrologists and water resources engineers deal with two types of mathematical models to address water resources issues related to planning and management. The first type is hydrological models that simulate the natural hydrological cycle to establish the rainfall-runoff relationship and answer the question of what happens to rain. The second type is water resources systems models that establish the relationship between water supply and demand and answer the question of what happens to runoff. Typically, hydrological models lack the representation of human intervention and water uses and withdrawals, whereas water resources systems models do not consider the natural hydrological processes. Such disconnection impedes the important task of evaluating how natural hydrological and meteorological changes affect the society, and thus, make any proposed adaptation strategies unrealistic. In this research a modeling framework that connects both hydrological modeling (HM) with water resources systems modeling (WRSM) is proposed. Furthermore, the WRSM will be conducted in an integrated fashion to link the water resources system and water allocation decisions for various water uses (e.g., irrigation, hydropower,...) with socioeconomic considerations, such as cost of production, food prices, and revenue generated. Environmental considerations, such as streamflow requirements to support healthy ecosystem will be also considered. The expected outcome of this proposed research program is a modeling framework that allows for Sustainability-oriented Water Allocation, Management, and Planning (SWAMP). SWAMP will be developed for the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) as an ideal case study of a river basin extending over three prairie provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba), and subject to an inter-provincial water apportionment agreement. SWAMP will allow for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The varying conditions could be natural (climate change) or due to human interventions (e.g., changes of societal perceptions of the value of water). This novel framework and concept promotes and allows for a paradigm shift from studying traditional water budgets to quantifying value-based water budgets; i.e., balance of water and water-dependent commodities and services. SWAMP includes prediction of runoff at the headwaters of the SRB, including those originating from the Rocky Mountains, and routing them through the water resources systems of various water reservoirs and channels, taking into effect various consumptive and non-consumptive water uses for economic, social, and environmental purposes. SWAMP will be an easy-to-understand, rigorous, and decision aid-oriented modeling framework that can be a tool facilitating planning through discussions and negotiations among various stakeholders. SWAMP will be capable of: (1) simulating the water resources system in the SRB under various climatic conditions; water availability scenarios; water, food, and energy pricing; and environmental requirements; (2) analyzing the interrelationships among the various hydrological, environmental, and socioeconomic factors in the SRB, and showing the opportunity value, rather than the cost, of water uses; (3) analyzing the impact of possible time-varying socioeconomic change and adaptation measures; and (4) studying the impacts of different water availability scenarios on the water allocation priorities, infrastructure upgrade decisions, and inter-provincial water apportionment in light of water “societal value”. This research will show the importance of including water as a key variable in economic development and strategic planning at the regional level.