Theory and applications of metapopulations

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Metapopulations are "populations of populations", with different places linked by the movement of individuals (humans or animals) between them. Metapopulations are used in ecology to describe movemement of animals between geographical regions and the dynamics of populations within those regions, and in epidemiology to describe the spatio-temporal spread of infectious pathogens carried by travelling individuals. I have for instance used this framework to describe the global spread of infections such as pandemic H1N1 Influenza using the global air transportation network as a conduit. This proposal will impact the more and more frequent users of metapopulation models by providing a methodology to deal with problems ranging from the use of data to the mathematical analysis of systems. The proposal articulates along three axes: 1. To develop methodologies to better estimate the speed at which individuals move between locations. The question here is to translate knowledge about movement of individuals into knowledge about the movement of groups of individuals. Examples will be drawn from the movement of fish in the Canadian Arctic and the movement of people using the global air transportation network. 2. To compare stochastic and deterministic metapopulation models. Stochastic systems are more appropriate to describe small numbers of individuals. However, they are both more complicated mathematically and more time-consuming to simulate numerically. Understanding when it is safe to use deterministic models and when it is preferable to use stochastic systems is important. 3. To investigate commonalities between the different types of metapopulation models to formulate a coherent theory of metapopulations.