Theory and applications of metapopulations

复合种群的理论与应用

• 批准号: 327576-2012
• 负责人: Arino, Julien
• 金额: $ 1.09万
• 依托单位: University of Manitoba
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=572060
• 关键词: Theory; applications; metapopulations

Metapopulations are "populations of populations", with different places linked by the movement of individuals (humans or animals) between them. Metapopulations are used in ecology to describe movemement of animals between geographical regions and the dynamics of populations within those regions, and in epidemiology to describe the spatio-temporal spread of infectious pathogens carried by travelling individuals. I have for instance used this framework to describe the global spread of infections such as pandemic H1N1 Influenza using the global air transportation network as a conduit. This proposal will impact the more and more frequent users of metapopulation models by providing a methodology to deal with problems ranging from the use of data to the mathematical analysis of systems. The proposal articulates along three axes: 1. To develop methodologies to better estimate the speed at which individuals move between locations. The question here is to translate knowledge about movement of individuals into knowledge about the movement of groups of individuals. Examples will be drawn from the movement of fish in the Canadian Arctic and the movement of people using the global air transportation network. 2. To compare stochastic and deterministic metapopulation models. Stochastic systems are more appropriate to describe small numbers of individuals. However, they are both more complicated mathematically and more time-consuming to simulate numerically. Understanding when it is safe to use deterministic models and when it is preferable to use stochastic systems is important. 3. To investigate commonalities between the different types of metapopulation models to formulate a coherent theory of metapopulations.

集合种群是“种群的种群”，不同的地方通过个体(人或动物)之间的移动联系在一起。集合种群在生态学中被用来描述动物在地理区域之间的迁徙和在这些区域内的种群动态，在流行病学中被用来描述旅行个体携带的传染病病原体的时空传播。例如，我使用这一框架描述了以全球航空运输网络为渠道的甲型H1N1流感大流行等传染病的全球传播。 这一提议将通过提供一种方法来处理从数据使用到系统数学分析的各种问题，从而影响越来越频繁地使用集合人口模型的用户。该提案沿着三个轴心阐述： 1.制定方法，以便更好地估计个人在不同地点之间流动的速度。这里的问题是将关于个人运动的知识转化为关于个体群体运动的知识。将从加拿大北极地区的鱼类流动和使用全球航空运输网络的人员流动中举出例子。 2.比较随机和确定性集合种群模型。随机系统更适合于描述少量的个体。然而，它们在数学上都更加复杂，数值模拟也更加耗时。理解何时使用确定性模型是安全的，何时使用随机系统是可取的，这一点很重要。 3.研究不同类型集合种群模型之间的共性，形成集合种群的一致性理论。