Ecological and epidemiological modelling across multiple spatial scales

跨多个空间尺度的生态和流行病学建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-05466
• 负责人: Arino, Julien
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: University of Manitoba
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=644120
• 关键词: Ecological; epidemiological; modelling; across; multiple

I propose to consider the formulation and mathematical and computational analysis of coupled mathematical models operating across distinct spatial scales, with each model describing the movement patterns and resulting range of the different species interacting in competition for resources, prey-predator relationships or the transmission of an infectious pathogen.******Indeed, when considering interactions between two or more species, it is common that the species involved occupy and move through space in very different ways. For instance, competition for resources can involve migrating and non-migrating species; the range of many predators far exceeds the range of their prey species; and in vector-borne diseases, hosts are typically highly mobile while vectors have very small ranges. ******It is therefore important to formulate methodologies to deal with these varying ranges. This will be achieved by considering different model types (ordinary or partial differential equations, discrete or continuous Markov chains, network models), each suitable for the description of the range and movement of a given species, with coupling terms to describe local interactions between species.******To understand the different types of couplings that can occur, I will work with three examples for which I have access to data.***1. Annual migration of the purple martin (P. subis) between North America and its overwintering site in Brazil. The data for this problem comes from K. Fraser (University of Manitoba).***2. Utilization of a stock of snow crabs (C. opilio) in Atlantic Canada. The fishing fleet divides itself between cooperative and competitive groups. The data for this problem comes from D. Gillis (University of Manitoba).***3. Spread of malaria in and between the Comoros Islands. Through a collaboration with C. Rogier (Service de Santé des Armées, France), I have data on the spread of several strains of P. falciparum, the causative parasite of malaria, between the five islands in the archipelago. Information is also available about human movement between the islands and about vector densities.******These examples will require different combinations of model types: discrete and continuous time deterministic in the case of P. subis, continuous time deterministic and stochastic in the case of C. opilio and a combination of discrete and continuous deterministic and stochastic in the case of P. falciparum. From these different examples, I will derive general principles that govern the use and coupling of models of different types. I will consider the mathematical analysis of such multiscale hybrid models and will devise computer code for their computational analysis.******This novel interdisciplinary program will train at least 10 HQP and will help reduce the gap between model- and data-based approaches in spatial ecology and epidemiology, providing a firm theoretic background to consider data driven problems in these fields.

我建议考虑在不同空间尺度上运行的耦合数学模型的公式、数学和计算分析，每个模型描述不同物种在资源竞争、捕食者关系或传染性病原体传播中相互作用的运动模式和结果范围。的确，当考虑到两个或多个物种之间的相互作用时，通常涉及的物种以非常不同的方式占据和移动空间。例如，对资源的竞争可能涉及迁徙物种和非迁徙物种；许多捕食者的活动范围远远超过它们的猎物种类；在病媒传播的疾病中，宿主通常是高度流动的，而病媒的范围非常小。******因此，制定处理这些不同范围的方法是很重要的。这将通过考虑不同的模型类型（常微分方程或偏微分方程，离散或连续马尔可夫链，网络模型）来实现，每种模型都适用于描述给定物种的范围和运动，并使用耦合项来描述物种之间的局部相互作用。******为了理解可能发生的不同类型的耦合，我将使用三个可以访问数据的示例。***1。紫色马丁（P. subis）在北美和巴西越冬地之间的年度迁徙。这个问题的数据来自K.弗雷泽（曼尼托巴大学）。加拿大大西洋地区一群雪蟹的利用。渔船队分为合作型和竞争型两类。这个问题的数据来自D. Gillis（曼尼托巴大学）。科摩罗群岛内和群岛间疟疾的传播。通过与C. Rogier（法国圣<s:1>武装组织服务处）的合作，我掌握了若干种恶性疟原虫（疟疾的致病寄生虫）在群岛五个岛屿之间传播的数据。有关岛屿之间的人类活动和媒介密度的信息也可获得。******这些例子将需要模型类型的不同组合：在subis的情况下是离散和连续时间确定性的，在opilio的情况下是连续时间确定性和随机的，在恶性疟原虫的情况下是离散和连续确定性和随机的组合。从这些不同的例子中，我将推导出控制不同类型模型的使用和耦合的一般原则。我将考虑这种多尺度混合模型的数学分析，并将为其计算分析设计计算机代码。******这个新颖的跨学科项目将培养至少10名HQP，并将有助于缩小空间生态学和流行病学中基于模型和基于数据的方法之间的差距，为考虑这些领域的数据驱动问题提供坚实的理论背景。