Investigating operational and financial risk hedging strategies in supply chains under gasoline price, carbon price, and demand uncertainties

汽油价格的不确定性对供应链的表现有很大影响，最近的观察显示，汽油价格波动很大。汽油价格波动影响运输成本，进而影响供应链成本。例如，即使将制造外包到成本较低的地点，到配送地点的较高运输成本仍将对供应链成本产生不利影响。为了降低运输成本，一家公司可能会采用几种操作灵活性，比如重新设计包裹，用更少的卡车装载更多的货物，或者选择距离更近的供应商来缩短买家和供应商之间的距离。这种管理灵活性不仅减少了燃料量和碳排放，还有助于满足更严格的环境规则，这些规则强制执行公司可能排放的碳水平，以将气候变化的影响降至最低。许多公司已纳入碳排放交易，根据需要买卖“证书”，以将其排放量控制在可接受的水平内。然而，这种交易带来了碳价格的不确定性，再加上汽油价格的不确定性，导致了不可低估的金融风险。这些金融风险可以通过使用可交易的金融工具来对冲--这一过程被称为金融对冲。这项研究的目的不仅是了解汽油和碳价格不确定性带来的这些新风险的规模，还将传统的需求不确定性纳入其中，以检验它们的综合影响。这项研究最终将通过在供应链模型中整合运营和财务对冲来制定风险管理策略。这一分析将指导供应链经理将汽油价格、碳价格和需求不确定性带来的下行风险降至最低，并为增强供应链的可持续性提供一系列新的管理机会。

Gasoline price uncertainty has a great impact on the performance of a supply chain, and recent observation has shown gasoline price as very volatile. Volatile gasoline price affects transportation cost, which in turn affects supply chain costs. For example, even if manufacturing is outsourced to a site where this cost is lower, a higher shipping cost to the distribution site will still have an adverse impact on the supply chain cost. To reduce the shipping cost, a company may employ several operational flexibilities such as redesigning packages to load more on fewer trucks or selecting closer suppliers to reduce the distance between the buyer and supplier. Such managerial flexibilities not only yield a reduction in the amount of fuel burnt and lower carbon emissions but also help satisfy the stricter environmental rules enforcing the levels of carbon companies may emit to minimize the effects of climate change. Many companies have incorporated carbon emission trading, buying or selling "certificates" as needed to keep their emissions within acceptable levels. Such trading, however, causes uncertainty in the carbon price, which combined with gasoline price uncertainty leads to financial risks that cannot be underestimated. These financial risks can be hedged by using tradable financial instruments - a process called financial hedging. This research aims to not only understand the magnitude of these new risks from gasoline and carbon price uncertainty, but also incorporate traditional demand uncertainty to examine their combined effects. This research will ultimately develop risk management strategies by integrating operational and financial hedging in supply chain models. The analysis will guide supply chain managers in minimizing downside risk from gasoline price, carbon price, and demand uncertainties and offer a series of new managerial opportunities to enhance the sustainability of supply chains.