Investigating operational and financial risk hedging strategies in supply chains under gasoline price, carbon price, and demand uncertainties

汽油价格的不确定性对供应链的表现有很大的影响，最近的观察表明汽油价格非常不稳定。汽油价格波动影响运输成本，进而影响供应链成本。例如，即使将制造外包到成本较低的地点，到分销地点的较高运输成本仍然会对供应链成本产生不利影响。为了降低运输成本，公司可以采用一些操作灵活性，例如重新设计包装，以便在更少的卡车上装载更多的货物，或者选择更近的供应商，以缩短买方和供应商之间的距离。这种管理上的灵活性不仅能减少燃料消耗和碳排放，还有助于满足更严格的环境规则，这些规则强制执行碳排放水平，以最大限度地减少气候变化的影响。许多公司已将碳排放交易纳入其中，根据需要买卖“证书”，以将其排放量控制在可接受的水平内。然而，这种交易导致了碳价格的不确定性，再加上汽油价格的不确定性，导致了不可低估的金融风险。这些金融风险可以通过使用可交易的金融工具来对冲，这一过程被称为金融对冲。本研究不仅旨在了解汽油和碳价格不确定性带来的这些新风险的程度，而且还结合传统的需求不确定性来研究它们的综合影响。本研究最终将通过整合供应链模型中的运营和财务对冲来制定风险管理策略。该分析将指导供应链管理者将汽油价格、碳价格和需求不确定性带来的下行风险降至最低，并提供一系列新的管理机会，以增强供应链的可持续性。

Gasoline price uncertainty has a great impact on the performance of a supply chain, and recent observation has shown gasoline price as very volatile. Volatile gasoline price affects transportation cost, which in turn affects supply chain costs. For example, even if manufacturing is outsourced to a site where this cost is lower, a higher shipping cost to the distribution site will still have an adverse impact on the supply chain cost. To reduce the shipping cost, a company may employ several operational flexibilities such as redesigning packages to load more on fewer trucks or selecting closer suppliers to reduce the distance between the buyer and supplier. Such managerial flexibilities not only yield a reduction in the amount of fuel burnt and lower carbon emissions but also help satisfy the stricter environmental rules enforcing the levels of carbon companies may emit to minimize the effects of climate change. Many companies have incorporated carbon emission trading, buying or selling "certificates" as needed to keep their emissions within acceptable levels. Such trading, however, causes uncertainty in the carbon price, which combined with gasoline price uncertainty leads to financial risks that cannot be underestimated. These financial risks can be hedged by using tradable financial instruments - a process called financial hedging. This research aims to not only understand the magnitude of these new risks from gasoline and carbon price uncertainty, but also incorporate traditional demand uncertainty to examine their combined effects. This research will ultimately develop risk management strategies by integrating operational and financial hedging in supply chain models. The analysis will guide supply chain managers in minimizing downside risk from gasoline price, carbon price, and demand uncertainties and offer a series of new managerial opportunities to enhance the sustainability of supply chains.