Forecasting marine ecosystem resilience: variation in species interactions and food web dynamics in a changing world

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Recent conceptual advances in ecology highlight the pressing need to understand how biotic and abiotic factors shape the strength and outcome of species interactions over multiple spatial and temporal scales. At the same time, ecologists can no longer isolate their work from the growing influences of anthropogenic change. This is abundantly clear in marine systems where the exploitation of predators is fundamentally restructuring food webs and the accelerating rate of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is profoundly modifying ocean chemistry. By understanding the factors that drive variation in food web dynamics, modern community ecology will be poised to move towards a predictive framework to forecast where, when and how multiple factors, anthropogenic and natural, biotic and abiotic, interact to structure ecological communities. My research program will target three short-term goals. My students and I will: 1) assess and forecast the effects of predator depletion on rocky reef food webs, 2) determine the effects of food web alteration and alternative states on the recovery of depleted populations, and 3) quantify the effects of ocean acidification on species interactions and coastal productivity. The strength of this research program lies in its integrated use of empirical field experiments, lab-based inquires, remote sensing, isotopic analyses, and state-of-the-art quantitative modelling to forecast future change. Critically, this research program will provide valuable training for undergraduate and graduate students in cutting-edge conservation science, providing Canada with the intellectual and innovative capacity to inform the sustainability of resilient marine ecosystems and anticipate climate change impacts on coastal oceans. This research program will simultaneously advance ecological theory in food web dynamics, community stability, and alternative states, and devise conservation solutions that support both resilient and productive marine ecosystems.