A diagnostic study of the variability of the Earth radiation energy budget using satellite observations and numerical simulations

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There is a large discrepancy in the projection of decadal climate change among the global climate models even when identical radiative forcing is prescribed, which limits the usefulness of these projections as to providing guidance for policy-making. The large climate sensitivity uncertainty exists for lack of quantitative understanding of such key climate feedback factors as cloud and water vapor. The advancement of observing programs, such as the A-Train satellites, have provided unprecedented opportunities for diagnosing the variations of the top-of-the-atmosphere longwave and shortwave radiation and associated climate forcing and feedback from multiple angles. This research program addresses these challenges and opportunities and is dedicated to improving our understanding of the variability of the Earth radiation energy budget. In the next five years, we will develop and apply analytical and numerical methods to understand the variations in the radiation budget in the latest decade as observed by the A-Train satellites, validate the climate change simulations of the state-of-the-art climate models against the observations in terms of radiation variability and feedback strengths, and incorporate historical radiation measurements to improve model-ensemble climate projection. The long-term objective is to integrate satellite observation and climate modeling into an atmospheric research program at McGill. We will endeavor to understand climate variability, especially that in the radiation fields, at different spatial and temporal scales, to understand the relation between the radiation energy budget and other physical components of the climate system, and to use this knowledge to improve climate prediction. This program will provide strong observational constraints on the uncertainty in climate sensitivity, a key source of uncertainty in climate prediction. This program will also aid the development of future climate observing programs. Improved climate monitoring and projection will have profound global and regional (Canada) societal benefits such as providing better guidance for mitigation and adaptation.