Quantifying the response of Canadian forests to climate change, extreme weather events and management activities

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A large portion of forests in eastern Canada and US are plantation or managed forests that absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide to offset some of the fossil fuel emissions. These forests are being affected by changes in regional climate and extreme weather events such as drought, floods and warmer winter/summer temperatures. We will investigate the impact of environmental changes on carbon (C), water and nutrient cycling in planted/managed forest ecosystems growing in an agricultural landscape in Southern Ontario and how these forests may respond to future climate change and extreme weather events. These forests include three conifer age-sequence (74, 39, 11 year old) and a deciduous (>80 year old) stands. All four stands are located in Long Point Region Conservation Authority watershed. 74-year old conifer stand has been thinned (30% trees removed) in winter of 2012. Impact of this management treatment on C sequestration will be evaluated using both biometric and micrometeorological techniques. We will also conduct modeling studies to explore the impact of natural and anthropogenic effects (drought/flooding, heat stresses etc) on C and water exchanges in all four forests using a nitrogen coupled model (the Canadian Land Surface Scheme - Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, CLASS-CTEM+N) and BEPS model, coupled to regional GEM model. In addition a hydrologic model (MIKE-SHE) will be deployed to study ground water dynamics of watersheds and to provide hydrologic input data for distributed CLASS-CTEM+N simulations over the catchments. The economic attractiveness of conifer afforestation across Canada will also be investigated using CFS-FBM model, including C sequestration related benefits. Quantification of the responses of managed forests to climate changes would help environmental planners to develop adaptation strategies for the growth and survival of forests, which provide numerous ecological services and clean water to society. Implementation of CLASS-CTEM+N model in Canadian Earth System Model would provide an assessment tool to generate scenarios of future climate for policy development by the Federal Government and IPCC.