Consortium for Permafrost Ecosystem in Transition (CPET)

不列颠哥伦比亚省东北部和邻近的西北地区南部是地球上变暖最快的地区之一，正在经历前所未有的工业扩张。气候变暖和人类活动干扰NEBC-西北地区边界地区，导致广泛的永久冻土融化和土地覆盖变化，破坏了水文循环和生态系统以及依赖于此的人类活动。本项目将调查边界地区永久冻土融化导致的水文和生态变化，发展和动员有关这些变化的知识，开发预测建模工具，并为我们在工业、政府和社区（包括原住民）的合作伙伴提供有关这些工具的互动式培训。为了更好地理解和预测冻土融化影响的能力，我们提出了永久冻土生态系统过渡联盟（CPET）。CPET的具体目标概括如下：1）绘制过去60年来冻土、湿地和森林覆盖率变化的空间分布图; 2）针对不同的地面解冻和湿度条件，进行实地研究，以提高对径流量和时间的理解; 3）模拟控制径流的主要水通量和蓄水过程; 4）通过实地调查和区域尺度冻土模型的后续调整，提高我们在更大尺度上描述冻土影响的能力;第五章）在气候变暖和人类活动的可能情景下，估计具有不连续永久冻土的北方和亚北极地区未来的径流量和地表水储存量扰动提高对冻土融化模式、速率、影响和反馈的了解和预测能力将：1）通过减少未来淡水供应的不确定性，改善水资源规划、管理和安全，并制定更好的缓解战略，以抵消负面影响; 2）减少因融化对基础设施和财产造成的破坏而产生的建设和维护成本，并减少对环境的影响。

Northeastern British Columbia and the adjacent southern Northwest Territories are among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and are experiencing unprecedented industrial expansion. Climate warming and human disturbance in the NEBC-NWT border region has led to widespread permafrost thaw and landcover change that has disrupted the hydrological cycle and the ecosystems and human activities that depend on it. This project will investigate hydrological and ecological changes resulting from permafrost thaw in the border region, develop and mobilise knowledge of these changes, develop predictive modelling tools, and provide interactive training on these tools to our partners in industry, government and communities, including First Nations. In response to the need for improved understanding of and ability to predict permafrost thaw impacts, we propose the Consortium for Permafrost Ecosystems in Transition (CPET). A summary of CPET specific objectives is as follows: 1) Map the changing spatial distribution of permafrost, wetland and forest coverage over the past 60 years; 2) For different ground thaw and moisture conditions, conduct field studies to improve the understanding of the volume and timing of runoff; 3) Simulate the major water flux and storage processes controlling runoff; 4) Improve our ability to characterize permafrost impacts at larger scales through field investigation and subsequent adaptation of the a regional-scale permafrost model; 5) Estimate future quantities of runoff and surface water storage within Boreal and subarctic landscapes with discontinuous permafrost under possible scenarios of climate warming and human disturbance. Improved knowledge and predictive capacity of permafrost thaw patterns, rates, impacts and feedbacks will 1) improve water planning, management and security by reducing the uncertainty on the future availability of freshwater, and enable better mitigation strategies to offset negative impacts, and 2) reduce construction and maintenance costs arising from thaw-induced damage to infrastructure and property, and reduce environmental impact.