Consortium for Permafrost Ecosystem in Transition (CPET)

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Northeastern British Columbia and the adjacent southern Northwest Territories are among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and are experiencing unprecedented industrial expansion. Climate warming and human disturbance in the NEBC-NWT border region has led to widespread permafrost thaw and landcover change that has disrupted the hydrological cycle and the ecosystems and human activities that depend on it. This project will investigate hydrological and ecological changes resulting from permafrost thaw in the border region, develop and mobilise knowledge of these changes, develop predictive modelling tools, and provide interactive training on these tools to our partners in industry, government and communities, including First Nations. In response to the need for improved understanding of and ability to predict permafrost thaw impacts, we propose the Consortium for Permafrost Ecosystems in Transition (CPET). A summary of CPET specific objectives is as follows: 1) Map the changing spatial distribution of permafrost, wetland and forest coverage over the past 60 years; 2) For different ground thaw and moisture conditions, conduct field studies to improve the understanding of the volume and timing of runoff; 3) Simulate the major water flux and storage processes controlling runoff; 4) Improve our ability to characterize permafrost impacts at larger scales through field investigation and subsequent adaptation of the a regional-scale permafrost model; 5) Estimate future quantities of runoff and surface water storage within Boreal and subarctic landscapes with discontinuous permafrost under possible scenarios of climate warming and human disturbance. Improved knowledge and predictive capacity of permafrost thaw patterns, rates, impacts and feedbacks will 1) improve water planning, management and security by reducing the uncertainty on the future availability of freshwater, and enable better mitigation strategies to offset negative impacts, and 2) reduce construction and maintenance costs arising from thaw-induced damage to infrastructure and property, and reduce environmental impact.