Population and community dynamics in complex environments

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Ecological theory aims to explain observed spatio-temporal patterns of population extinction and persistence, spatial distribution, and community composition. An understanding of processes that generate these patterns is essential to predict the response of ecological communities to human activities such as development or harvesting, and to natural environmental variation. Ecologists use mathematical models to explore general theories for how processes on smaller scales interact to create patterns on larger scales. My vision is to advance ecological theory by using sophisticated mathematical tools integrating individual-level behaviour with population-dynamic interactions into tractable models that help predict population and community patterns. My particular focus is on individual movement behaviour in response to complex environmental features. The applications of my research to ecosystem health, conservation biology, and human management of natural systems are of central importance to Canadians and people worldwide. In this program, I will work on the three following aspects of environmental complexity to tackle fundamental questions in ecology. 1. Rivers provide essential services to humans, yet are in severe peril worldwide. Fish populations are threatened by fragmentation, degradation, and competition of non-native invasive species. Movement barriers (e.g. dams, culverts) severely limit dispersal pathways for fish and can easily disconnect parts of the river network. Through my research program, I will elucidate the mechanisms through which physical structure and individual behaviour in a river network affect population distribution and species extinction. 2. Human activities create increasingly fragmented landscapes for biological species. Transportation corridors disrupt contiguous habitat and pose movement barriers or opportunities. Agriculture and infrastructure subdivide habitat into patches of varying quality. Population survival in such landscapes depends on how individuals navigate through this maze, utilize resources and avoid dangers. Through my research program, I will integrate individual movement behaviour with population-dynamic interaction to understand conditions for survival, threats of extinction, and large-scale spatial distribution patterns of species in patchy landscapes. 3. Seasonal changes in environmental conditions such as temperature or precipitation affect most ecosystems, and the variability of these changes is predicted to increase under global change scenarios. Many ecological models do not explicitly include seasonal variation and are of limited use to predict ecosystem responses to global change. Through my research program, I will integrate seasonally varying individual behaviour and environmental conditions with population dynamics to predict population patterns under seasonal variation.