Biological and landscape controls on the net greenhouse gas balance of High Arctic ecosystems

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Since the 1950’s, annual air temperatures over Arctic landmasses have risen between 2°C and 3°C, while winter temperatures have increased as much as 4°C. These warmer temperatures could induce cascading changes to terrestrial Arctic ecosystems, such as: altered hydrological cycles from increasing precipitation, shifting distribution of plant communities, altered surface properties such as decreased surface albedo, and increased permafrost thawing. Permafrost soils contain approximately half of the global soil carbon reservoir, so an increased rate of carbon loss due to permafrost thawing could accelerate future climate change. At the same time, permafrost thawing could liberate plant nutrients, increasing plant productivity and carbon storage, creating a negative feedback on future warming. To predict the future response of arctic ecosystems to changes in climate, we need to understand key greenhouse gas (GHG) cycling processes in high Arctic ecosystems at a range of spatial and temporal scales.