Estimation for non homogeneous birth and death processes: applications in ecology and epidemics

非同质出生和死亡过程的估计：在生态学和流行病中的应用

• 批准号: 36526-2013
• 负责人: Froda, Sorana
• 金额: $ 0.8万
• 依托单位: Université du Québec à Montréal
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=635897
• 关键词: Estimation; non; homogeneous; birth; death

We are proposing novel methods for analyzing ecological, namely predator-prey, as well as epidemic data. The focus is on estimating crucial parameters in such contexts, for example the interaction parameters in ecology, or the basic reproduction number in epidemic studies. These parameters control the size of predator-prey populations, respectively the spread of epidemics. In both contexts, the starting points are new specific models, incorporating deterministic dynamics into a non homogeneous Poisson or birth and death process. Further, we develop an estimation methodology that takes into account how field data are collected, in particular that many instrumental quantities are hard or impossible to measure.In the long run, important applications of this new methodology are in the study of metapopulations, i.e. animal populations living in a fragmented habitat, as well as in the spatio-temporal study of recurrent epidemics, like the flu seasons.In ecology, the practical impact of our proposal is in assessing the evolution and possible decline of animal populations, due to human intervention, among other. As far as epidemics go, our proposal should contribute to the rich body of active research aimed at finding efficient ways of controlling the size and cost of epidemics

我们提出了新的方法来分析生态，即捕食者-猎物，以及流行病数据。重点是在这种情况下，例如生态学中的相互作用参数，或在流行病研究的基本繁殖数估计的关键参数。这些参数分别控制着捕食者-猎物种群的规模和流行病的传播。在这两种情况下，出发点是新的特定模型，将确定性动力学纳入非齐次泊松或出生和死亡过程。此外，我们还开发了一种估算方法，该方法考虑了如何收集现场数据，特别是许多仪器测量量很难或不可能测量。从长远来看，这种新方法的重要应用是在集合种群的研究中，即生活在破碎栖息地的动物种群，以及在反复流行病的时空研究中，如流感季节。在生态学中，我们的建议的实际影响是评估由于人类干预等原因造成的动物种群的演变和可能减少。就流行病而言，我们的建议应有助于开展大量积极研究，以找到控制流行病规模和成本的有效方法