Development of algorithms for the forces associated with flexural failure of ice

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Exploration and production of offshore oil and gas reserves are being pushed further and further north into waters that are exposed to ice cover on a seasonal or year-round, basis. Concurrently, the development of these resources requires offshore structures that can withstand the environmental conditions present while maintaining the economics of the hydrocarbon field development. Ice forces are often the limiting design condition for the offshore structure and thus it is imperative that these be well-understood and that there be means available to determine these forces without undue conservatism. The objective of the proposed research is the development of a validated model for the flexural failure of ice against conical offshore structures.The research will build on previous work that has resulted in a new algorithm for the flexural failure of ice against a conical structure but which still does not fully model all the three-dimensional aspects of the interaction between the ice and the structure, in particular the ice rubble pile. The research will introduce an innovative new approach to the modeling of the rubble pile to provide a more accurate assessment of the force required to displace it. The research will also address the issue of uncertainty in two aspects: the comparison between modeled and measured loads, where the latter show considerable scatter for seemingly like conditions: and the extension of the deterministic algorithm to a probabilistic model that accounts for the uncertainties in the fundamental independent variables. Finally, the model will also be extended to allow for the modeling of interactions with Multi-year ice.The proposed research will contribute significantly to the understanding, and advance the modeling, of ice interactions with conical structures. This is essential for the safe and economical development of offshore oil and gas reserves in the Canadian Arctic.