Microsimulating Urban Systems

微观模拟城市系统

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04479
• 负责人: Miller, Eric
• 金额: $ 4.81万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=659799
• 关键词: Microsimulating; Urban; Systems

It has long been recognized that urban transportation systems and built form are fundamentally intertwined: the transportation system provides access to land, thereby making it usable and helping to shape the distribution, types and densities of activities over space, while the built form and its associated spatial distribution of activities generates the demand for transportation services and the performance of the transportation system through the loading of this demand onto the road, transit and active (walk/bike) networks. The various adverse, "unintended" impacts of urban transportation systems (congestion, pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, accidents, etc.) are not solely the product of the transportation system, nor are "solutions" to these problems solely achievable through transportation system improvements. The way in which we build our urban regions is a fundamental determinant of transportation system performance, and more sustainable urban regions will require a coordinated and systematic redesign of both our built form and transportation systems.* Recognition of this fundamental transportation - land use interaction directly implies the need for comprehensive, integrated models of transportation and land use that capture the two-way interactions between the two systems and that thereby allow the full impacts on an urban region of both transportation and land use policies to be systematically explored. With over 80% of Canadians living within urban regions, integrated urban models offer the potential to provide robust, credible forecasts of policy impacts to support improved, evidence-based decision-making concerning transportation and land use investments and policies. Given the billions of dollars that are expected to be spent in the coming decades on transit systems alone in this country, along with the serious challenges faced by our cities to remain high quality homes for our population in the face of continuing growth, such improved decision support tools can play a key role in finding cost-effective, sustainable paths into the future for our metropolitan regions.*The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) model system is a state-of-the-art agent-based, integrated microsimulation model of urban spatial socio-economic processes (demographics, housing markets, travel, etc.). An operational prototype has previously been developed by the research team. The primary objective of the proposed research is to complete ILUTE as a fully operational tool for urban systems modelling and policy analysis.*In addition to the development and deployment of this "ILUTE Version 1", a second, longer-term objective of this research project is to begin work on the design of an "ILUTE 2.0" that is based on a strong, consistent theoretical framework, and new, emerging computational capabilities, datasets and modelling methods. This "2.0" design work will proceed in parallel with the "1.0" implementation. It will not result in an operational "2.0" system within the lifetime of this project, but it will lay the foundation for future work in this direction.

人们早就认识到，城市交通系统和建筑形式从根本上是交织在一起的：交通系统提供了通往土地的通道，从而使土地可用，并有助于塑造空间上活动的分布、类型和密度，而建筑形式及其相关的活动空间分布，通过将这种需求加载到道路、交通和活动（步行/自行车）网络上，产生了对交通服务的需求和交通系统的性能。城市交通系统的各种不利的、“意想不到的”影响（拥堵、污染、温室气体排放、事故等）不仅仅是交通系统的产物，这些问题的“解决方案”也不能仅仅通过改善交通系统来实现。我们建设城市区域的方式是交通系统性能的基本决定因素，而更可持续的城市区域将需要对我们的建筑形式和交通系统进行协调和系统的重新设计。*认识到这种基本的交通-土地利用相互作用，直接意味着需要全面、综合的交通和土地利用模式，这种模式能够捕捉到两个系统之间的双向相互作用，从而允许系统地探索交通和土地利用政策对城市区域的全面影响。超过80%的加拿大人生活在城市地区，综合城市模型提供了对政策影响的强大、可信的预测，以支持有关交通和土地使用投资和政策的改进、基于证据的决策。考虑到未来几十年我国仅在交通系统上就将花费数十亿美元，以及我们的城市在持续增长的情况下为我们的人口保持高质量住房所面临的严峻挑战，这种改进的决策支持工具可以在为我们的大都市地区寻找具有成本效益的、可持续的未来道路方面发挥关键作用。*综合土地利用、交通、环境（ILUTE）模型系统是最先进的基于主体的城市空间社会经济过程（人口统计、住房市场、旅行等）的综合微观模拟模型。该研究小组此前已经开发出了一个可操作的原型。拟议研究的主要目标是完成ILUTE，使其成为城市系统建模和政策分析的全面操作工具。*除了开发和部署“ILUTE版本1”之外，本研究项目的第二个长期目标是开始设计“ILUTE 2.0”，该2.0基于强大、一致的理论框架，以及新兴的计算能力、数据集和建模方法。这个“2.0”设计工作将与“1.0”实现并行进行。在这个项目的生命周期内，它不会产生一个可操作的“2.0”系统，但它将为这个方向的未来工作奠定基础。