Application of an advanced hydrology-land surface model for improved prediction of Bow River Flows

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Proper simulation and prediction of Bow and Elbow River flows, is a critical need for The City of Calgary tobetter address challenges facing the city of 1.2 million people particularly, under a changing climate andlandscape. This task is hampered by several challenges pertaining to uncertainties in hydrologic processrepresentation, parametrization, and simulation. In this research, we aim to address these challenges and set upan advanced physically-based hydrological model for the Bow and Elbow River Basins ending at Calgary. Forthis purpose, we will use MESH (Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie) modelling system.MESH is a Canadian distributed physically-based model that couples the Canadian Land Surface Scheme(CLASS) to the routing module of WATFLOOD hydrological model. It also includes an advanced hydrologicalprocess representation of lateral flows. This allows MESH to account for both the water and energy balancebetween land and atmosphere, which is key to adequate hydrologic process representation in this region (andcold regions in general), where water and energy are closely tied together through phase change. Our proposedmethodology is critically important for streamflow prediction in the Bow and Elbow River Basins, becausetheir streamflow is dominated by snowmelt and the freeze and thaw cycles have a significant impact on themovement of water within the soil. We will also take into account engineered water management featuresaffecting the water flow such as dams, reservoirs and diversions. This work will allow us to explore andcharacterize the different sources of uncertainty in the future flows in the region, and consequently, will enableus to improve our hydrologic process understanding and modelling in cold regions of Canada. The modellingplatform we will develop is expected to arm The City of Calgary with a state-of-the-art tool for improvedprediction, risk management and disaster response, decision making around major infrastructure planning,water supply and demand management, and prioritization of hydro-climatic adaptation measures.