Application of an advanced hydrology-land surface model for improved prediction of Bow River Flows

应用先进的水文-地表模型改进弓河流量预测

• 批准号: 521071-2017
• 负责人: Razavi, SeyedSaman
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: University of Saskatchewan
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Engage Grants Program
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=640725
• 关键词: Application; advanced; hydrology; land; surface

Proper simulation and prediction of Bow and Elbow River flows, is a critical need for The City of Calgary tobetter address challenges facing the city of 1.2 million people particularly, under a changing climate andlandscape. This task is hampered by several challenges pertaining to uncertainties in hydrologic processrepresentation, parametrization, and simulation. In this research, we aim to address these challenges and set upan advanced physically-based hydrological model for the Bow and Elbow River Basins ending at Calgary. Forthis purpose, we will use MESH (Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie) modelling system.MESH is a Canadian distributed physically-based model that couples the Canadian Land Surface Scheme(CLASS) to the routing module of WATFLOOD hydrological model. It also includes an advanced hydrologicalprocess representation of lateral flows. This allows MESH to account for both the water and energy balancebetween land and atmosphere, which is key to adequate hydrologic process representation in this region (andcold regions in general), where water and energy are closely tied together through phase change. Our proposedmethodology is critically important for streamflow prediction in the Bow and Elbow River Basins, becausetheir streamflow is dominated by snowmelt and the freeze and thaw cycles have a significant impact on themovement of water within the soil. We will also take into account engineered water management featuresaffecting the water flow such as dams, reservoirs and diversions. This work will allow us to explore andcharacterize the different sources of uncertainty in the future flows in the region, and consequently, will enableus to improve our hydrologic process understanding and modelling in cold regions of Canada. The modellingplatform we will develop is expected to arm The City of Calgary with a state-of-the-art tool for improvedprediction, risk management and disaster response, decision making around major infrastructure planning,water supply and demand management, and prioritization of hydro-climatic adaptation measures.

正确模拟和预测弓和肘河流量，是卡尔加里市更好地应对120万人口面临的挑战的关键需求，特别是在不断变化的气候和景观下。这项任务受到水文过程表示、参数化和模拟中的不确定性的一些挑战的阻碍。在这项研究中，我们的目标是解决这些挑战，并建立了一个先进的物理为基础的水文模型的弓和肘河流域结束在卡尔加里。为此，我们将使用MESH（Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie）模拟系统，MESH是一个加拿大分布式物理模型，它将加拿大陆面方案（CLASS）耦合到WATFLOOD水文模型的路由模块。它还包括一个先进的水文过程表示的横向流动。这使得MESH能够考虑陆地和大气之间的水和能量平衡，这是该地区（以及一般寒冷地区）充分水文过程表示的关键，水和能量通过相变紧密联系在一起。我们提出的方法对弓河和肘河流域的径流预测至关重要，因为它们的径流主要是由融雪和冻融循环对土壤中的水的运动有显着影响。我们还将考虑影响水流的工程水管理特征，如水坝、水库和引水。这项工作将使我们能够探索和表征该地区未来流量的不同不确定性来源，因此，将使我们能够提高我们对加拿大寒冷地区水文过程的理解和建模。我们将开发的建模平台预计将为卡尔加里市提供最先进的工具，以改善预测，风险管理和灾害响应，围绕主要基础设施规划，水资源供需管理以及水文气候适应措施的优先级进行决策。