Contemporary changes in marine ecosystems: from patterns to process

海洋生态系统的当代变化：从模式到过程

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-05118
• 负责人: Worm, Boris
• 金额: $ 3.5万
• 依托单位: Dalhousie University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=668909
• 关键词: Contemporary; changes; marine; ecosystems; patterns

My research program focuses on contemporary changes in marine ecosystems, and their drivers. I am particularly interested in explaining observed patterns and changes in marine biodiversity, which includes the richness, composition, and distribution of species, from plankton to whales. My research program entails the use of ecological theory, statistical modeling of large data sets, and field studies to answer the following research questions: (1) How is marine biodiversity distributed from local to global scales?, (2) how is this distribution changing under current environmental change, and (3) what are the mechanisms and drivers that explain observed changes? The answers to these questions help to inform management solutions, such as safely adjusted harvest levels under climate change, and ‘future-proof' protected areas that take changes in environmental conditions and species distributions into account. A key area of current inquiry is the application of time-varying ecological models, whereas key parameters are allowed to vary from year to year, allowing better real-time forecasts of fish stocks, for example. I am particularly interested in better understanding the oceanographic and ecological mechanisms behind observed changes in fish stock recruitment and productivity, which appear to be linked to on-going climate-driven changes in plankton ecosystems. Another important area is the development of spatial models that allow us to track the distribution and abundance of threatened species such as sharks and sea turtles, informed both by field tagging of animals, as well as the analysis of fisheries bycatch data. Here, we aim to develop tools for better protecting these species given their large seasonal and inter-annual movements. To do this effectively, we must also understand how fishermen are dynamically adjusting their ‘foraging tactics'. To this end, we are developing smart algorithms that can detect fishing patterns, and changes in behavior from satellite-derived Automatic Identification System (s-AIS) data, providing an unprecedented picture of human use patterns at a global scale. These patterns will also be analysed in conjunction with a large data set my research group has compiled on the diversity of many major taxa in the oceans, as well as existing protected areas that aim to conserve biodiversity. Finally, we have recently developed a novel ecological theory that can explain said patterns of biodiversity from first principles, namely temperature-driven metabolic rates and factors that affect the abundance of individuals. Building on this new basic understanding I would like to explore the long-term consequences of changes in ocean temperature on large-scale biodiversity patterns. While much of my laboratory works on global-scale processes, we maintain a regional focus on the Northwest Atlantic, making use of the richness of field data available here.

我的研究项目主要集中在当代海洋生态系统的变化及其驱动因素。我对解释观察到的海洋生物多样性的模式和变化特别感兴趣，包括从浮游生物到鲸鱼的丰富程度、组成和物种分布。我的研究计划需要使用生态学理论、大型数据集的统计建模和实地研究来回答以下研究问题：(1)海洋生物多样性如何从地方到全球范围内分布？(2)在当前的环境变化下，这种分布是如何变化的；(3)解释观察到的变化的机制和驱动因素是什么？这些问题的答案有助于为管理解决方案提供信息，例如在气候变化下安全调整收获水平，以及考虑到环境条件和物种分布变化的“面向未来的”保护区。当前研究的一个关键领域是应用时变生态模型，而允许关键参数每年变化，例如，允许对鱼类资源进行更好的实时预测。我对更好地理解观察到的鱼类种群补充和生产力变化背后的海洋学和生态机制特别感兴趣，这似乎与浮游生物生态系统中持续的气候驱动变化有关。另一个重要领域是发展空间模型，使我们能够通过对动物的实地标记以及对渔业副渔获物数据的分析，跟踪鲨鱼和海龟等受威胁物种的分布和数量。在这里，我们的目标是开发出更好地保护这些物种的工具，因为它们有很大的季节性和年际迁移。为了有效地做到这一点，我们还必须了解渔民是如何动态调整他们的“觅食策略”的。为此，我们正在开发智能算法，可以从卫星自动识别系统（s-AIS）数据中检测捕捞模式和行为变化，从而在全球范围内提供前所未有的人类使用模式图景。这些模式还将与我的研究小组编制的关于海洋中许多主要分类群的多样性的大型数据集以及旨在保护生物多样性的现有保护区相结合进行分析。最后，我们最近发展了一种新的生态理论，可以从第一原理解释生物多样性的模式，即温度驱动的代谢率和影响个体丰度的因素。在这一新的基本认识的基础上，我想探索海洋温度变化对大规模生物多样性模式的长期影响。虽然我的实验室的大部分工作都是在全球范围内进行的，但我们仍将重点放在西北大西洋地区，利用这里丰富的现场数据。